In this weekly market forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, XAUUSD, and BTCUSD through March 12, 2021.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down to see the charts and key levels for the week ahead.
The EURUSD saw a significant rejection last week from a level I mentioned in the previous weekly forecast.
Monday’s close below the 1.2070 channel support meant that the 1.2070/80 region was likely to serve as resistance.
And that it did.
Wednesday’s retest of 1.2080 resistance led to a 180 pip selloff that eventually tested the 1.1900 handle.
As I mentioned on Friday, 1.1900 is a key weekly level.
It’s going to take a close below that to expose lower levels, including 1.1630.
Friday’s close above 1.1900 suggests we could see a bounce toward 1.2000 this week.
However, the structure is starting to look more bearish, so I’d expect a strong rejection at 1.2000 if tested.
GBPUSD is another one that played out nicely last week.
In the previous forecast, I mentioned that the pound looked weak, and appeared ready for a move below 1.3900.
We got that move on Friday.
However, the GBPUSD has yet to test the next key support at 1.3740.
That seems to be a likely scenario for the week ahead.
Key resistance comes in at 1.3900.
GBPJPY has played out incredibly well since my February 5th post.
In that commentary, I explained how the pair could be ready for a 500-pip run.
GBPJPY was up over 600 pips at last week’s high.
That said, I think the pair still has fuel left in the tank.
As mentioned last week, I think it’s going to take a daily close above 150.00 to confirm the breakout and open the door to higher levels.
One such level is 152.80.
Get past that, and GBPJPY could retest the confluence of resistance near 155.00.
The 148.00 area is support for the week ahead.
XAUUSD (gold) has really struggled in recent months.
The same can be said for silver.
If gold is going to move higher in the near-term, it’s likely to happen around the $1,680 area.
I wrote about the significance of $1,680 last week.
Of course, there are no guarantees.
XAUUSD will either bounce from $1,680 in the coming weeks, or gold is likely heading much lower.
Key resistance comes in near $1,750.
BTCUSD (Bitcoin) has struggled to find its footing since coming off an all-time high near $58,000.
However, this correction wasn’t a surprise.
It occurred following a 100% run, similar to the January correction.
So far, this pullback has totaled 26% using the February 28th low.
That’s pretty close to the 31% January correction.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another pullback or two before this correction is officially over.
That would mimic the January correction and give Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market a strong foundation from which to rally from.
If we do see another dip, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the $44,000 area.
That’s a confluence of support and should attract a lot of buying pressure.
Regardless, though, I think BTCUSD is nearing the end of this correction.