Weekly Forex Forecast (June 26 – 30, 2017)

by Justin Bennett  · 

June 25, 2017

by Justin Bennett  · 

June 25, 2017

by Justin Bennett  · 

June 25, 2017

The sideways price action continued last week for the EURUSD. The pair has been limited to a 200 pip range since closing above the 1.1100 handle on May 17th.

In times like this, I tend to stay on the sideline. Momentum is lacking and each passing day seems to produce a new winner between buyers and sellers making things difficult to read.

But as long as the 1.1100 area holds as support on a daily closing basis, I’ll remain cautiously bullish. With that said, buyers will need to clear the recent highs at 1.1285 if they intend to advance the rally that began last December.

A close above the 1.1250/85 area would expose the next level of resistance at 1.1390. There is also a trend line just above that level near 1.1430 that could offer some confluence (of resistance) if the single currency can keep the bullish pressure intact.

For now, I’m anticipating more consolidation between 1.1100 and 1.1250/85. Time will tell if Friday’s advance is a sign of what’s to come or just sellers liquidating positions before the weekend.

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EURUSD range

Like many other currency pairs lately, the GBPUSD remains in “no man’s land”. The last two week’s of price action have provided little in the way of clues as to the most likely path forward.

However, one level has stood out above all others. The 1.2775 handle acted as support between April 19th and May 31st. But the June 9th selloff put the pair below the level on a daily closing basis.

Since that time, sellers have held their ground on six separate occasions. We’ll see if this continues or if buyers can muster enough strength to flip things back in their favor.

For the week ahead, the 1.2775 area remains resistance while support comes in at last week’s low of 1.2588.

GBPUSD range

We discussed the USDJPY on Thursday of last week. In that commentary, I pointed out the two opposing monthly pin bars. The offsetting signals illustrate just how indecisive the risk sensitive pair has been in recent weeks.

It’s not too surprising then to see that the pair climbed back above channel resistance during the June 19th session. This level has acted as a pivot of sorts since early May and continues to influence price action.

From here any retest of the 110.30 area will likely encounter an increase in buying pressure. But if USDJPY bulls intend to advance the pair this week, they’re going to need to take out the 111.70 handle.

Until that happens, we can expect more range bound price action. A close above 111.70 would expose the next key resistance level at 113.25. Alternatively, a close back below the confluence of support at 110.30 would pave the way for a retest of the 108.40 area.

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USDJPY new support

I mentioned the USDCAD on Friday and pointed out the confluence of resistance that has developed around the 1.3380 handle. This location is the intersection of trend line resistance, the May 25th low and ascending channel resistance.

A retest of 1.3380/90 in the week ahead could produce a favorable opportunity to get short. Key support from there would involve the lower boundary of the 4-hour channel near 1.3250 followed by 1.3000.

Remember that all of this is occurring after the June 12th break of trend line support. This was an idea I mentioned as part of the June 11th weekly forecast.

If buyers fail to push prices higher toward 1.3380/90 this week, traders can watch for a 4-hour close below channel support. Either way, my final target here is the 1.3000 region which will remain valid as long as the pair trades below 1.3390 on a 4-hour closing basis.

For more details see Friday’s commentary.

USDCAD confluence of resistance

The EURJPY was flat last week despite having broken above a trend line I mentioned on June 21st. Wednesday’s close above 123.20 kept the bullish pressure intact and exposed recent highs at 125.80.

Friday’s session confirmed that buyers remain in control for the time being. However, there is a bit a resistance developing in the 124.55 region which is what capped the late week advance.

I’m maintaining a cautiously bullish outlook here as long as the 123.60 support area holds on a daily closing basis. And if the minor resistance at 124.55 breaks down this week, there isn’t much stopping a run toward the 125.80 handle.

Alternatively, a daily close back below 123.60 would negate the bullish bias and expose the next key support at 122.60.

Want to see how we are trading these setups? Click here to get lifetime access.

EURJPY breakout

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  1. Thanks a lot learning to trade on long time frame seems hard but as soon as you become patient and get used its so flexible and takes away emotional trading .thanks Justin ☺

  2. Hi Justin.

    What’s your take of the AUDNZD pair of late? would I be correct to say that it’s poised to go higher from here?

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