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Weekly Forex Forecast (July 31 – August 4, 2017)

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EURUSD bulls look poised for further gains this week after holding above the 1.1670 handle last week. They also held prices above the 1.1610 level between Monday and Wednesday which ultimately triggered a weekly close of 1.1745.

As long as the 1.1670 handle holds on a daily closing basis, the pressure will remain to the upside. The next key resistance level from here comes in at the 2010 low of 1.1875.

I had previously mentioned the 1.1710 handle as a key level to keep in mind. However, the final 48 hours of last week illustrated that 1.1710 was not as strong as I thought it might be.

From here, any rotation lower towards the 1.1670 area will likely attract a bid while a retest of the 1.1875 area will likely attract offers.

Do keep in mind that the pair has become a bit overstretched on a daily and weekly basis. As such, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback or sideways price action to start the new trading week.

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EURUSD daily chart

GBPUSD bulls managed a push higher last week after giving back some gains during the week of July 16th. In fact, since early May the pair has flip flopped between winning and losing weeks. This choppy movement is one reason why I’ve stayed away from the pair for the last few months.

If the pattern I just mentioned continues, we could see the pound sterling lose ground this week. However, any rotation into the 1.2970 area could attract an influx of buyers.

Alternatively, a daily close above last week’s high at 1.3158 could extend the 2017 rally toward the 1.3250 handle.

GBPUSD daily chart

The USDJPY started last week on a bullish note, retesting the resistance area between 111.70 and 111.90. We discussed this area last weekend as one that could attract sellers if tested.

Despite Tuesday’s rally, the pair ended last week lower by nearly 50 pips. This keeps the pressure on downside targets including 110.30 and the June lows near 109.30.

Now, there isn’t enough room between Friday’s close and the 110.30 support area to justify an entry at the time of this writing. However, I will be watching for a move back to the 111.70 handle in the coming week. Such a retest could offer a favorable opportunity to get short.

A daily close below 110.30 would open the door for a move toward the June lows near 109.30. Regardless of what happens here, I want to emphasize that I won’t do anything unless I can secure a favorable risk to reward ratio of at least 3R.

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USDJPY daily chart

We discussed the AUDJPY on Friday noting the slight broadening wedge that has formed since coming off the June 22nd swing low.

At the time, the pair was trading above the trend line support you see in the chart below. However, by the end of Friday’s session, sellers had broken that level near 88.50 for a weekly closing price of 88.33.

With this break, we can now begin watching for bearish price action on a retest of the 88.60/80 resistance area. Key support from here comes in at the 87.60 handle.

A daily close below 87.60 would expose the next key support at 85.80. Alternatively, a 4-hour close back above the trend line near 88.80 would negate the bearish outlook.

AUDJPY 4-hour chart

The EURCAD continued its sideways movement last week. The consolidation has been the story since the July 12th sell-off found a bid at 1.4475.

Just last week, the pair once again tested the confluence of resistance at 1.4660/80. This area is the intersection of channel resistance from the June highs and a trend line that extends from the December 2015 low.

As long as 1.4660/80 holds as resistance on a daily closing basis, the bearish scenario is in play. And as I mentioned above, the next key support level comes in at the July 12th low of 1.4475/80.

A daily close below that level would expose the April lows near 1.4080. I remain short from 1.4660 and will consider adding to the position should sellers manage a daily close below 1.4475.

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EURCAD daily chart

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2 comments
Mx says

Great setups Justing thanks alot. What are those MAs you have on your charts and do you actually use them for any setups or not?

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