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Weekly Forex Forecast (January 29 – February 2, 2018)

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Mario Draghi’s comments catapulted the EURUSD higher on Thursday. However, the intraday rally was met with substantial selling pressure at 1.2525. I mentioned this level as one to watch last Wednesday.

The pair had also become overstretched on Thursday. At the time of the 1.2525 print, the single currency was more than 300 pips from the mean as measured by the 10 and 20 EMAs.

That meant a pullback was likely. Sure enough, the pair tumbled 150 pips into the close. Friday’s session didn’t fare much better, though it did end slightly higher than Thursday’s final print.

We could see some near-term weakness here, perhaps toward 1.2325. A daily close (5 pm EST) below that would expose 1.2160 followed closely by 1.2070.

As I mentioned on Friday, I’m much more interested in the Japanese yen right now. It’s my personal view that the commonalities between several of the yen crosses suggest a stronger yen over the coming weeks.

See last week’s commentary on the NZDJPY and CADJPY for more.

For now, I’m not interested in buying or selling the EURUSD. The sideways price action in the middle of this 200 pip range makes entries unfavorable.

A rotation toward 1.2325 or perhaps even 1.2160 accompanied by bullish price action would pique my interest.

EURUSD key levels on daily chart

Following an aggressive rally on Wednesday, the GBPUSD cooled off a bit in the final 48 hours of the week.

Similar to the EURUSD, we’re waiting to see what happens following a retest of key support or resistance. The 1.4070 area will likely attract an influx of buying pressure while 1.4335 serves as near-term resistance.

I do think we could see some weakness early in the week, but I’m not interested in the GBPUSD at current levels. Bullish price action at 1.4070 or a rotation lower to 1.3850 may be an attractive way to join the uptrend. For now, though, I’m on the sideline.

GBPUSD support and resistance on the daily chart

Even President Trump couldn’t reverse the U.S. dollar’s slump last week, particularly against the Japanese yen.

Since breaking below 112.00 on January 10, the USDJPY price action has been very one-sided.

We saw a brief sign of life following Trump’s comment on Thursday about the desire for a stronger USD over the long haul, but Friday’s plunge erased those gains in a hurry.

For the technical trader, this wasn’t a surprise. The pair had just tested 108.80, which is a support level I’ve had on my chart for some time.

Friday’s 108.56 close will likely keep pressure on the USDJPY this week. As long as 108.80 holds on a daily closing basis (New York 5 pm EST), I prefer selling rallies for a move toward the 107.50 handle.

If 108.80 resistance fails to hold on a daily closing basis, we could see a move back toward Friday’s high near 109.80.

While I do think the USDJPY will produce additional opportunities, I have to favor the EURJPY and even the GBPJPY. Both have carved attractive technical patterns, and both remain overextended to the upside.

USDJPY key levels on the daily chart

The EURJPY is my favorite currency pair at the moment. On January 23 I commented on a particular alignment of Fibonacci levels that hint at a top just above 136.60.

If that’s true, we could see the EURJPY settle into 131.40 and perhaps even 128.30 over the coming weeks and months.

But first, sellers need to clear trend line support near the 134.00 handle. Until that happens, the pair is still within the confines of this rising wedge, so additional strength should be respected.

Friday’s close was a significant one for the EURJPY. Since January 15, the pair has traded between 135.20 and 136.20. That is until Friday’s session broke 135.20 support on a daily and weekly closing basis.

The break below 135.20 could be enough to cap any early week advance. Keep in mind, however, that key support lies just below Friday’s close at 134.30/40. And below that, we have the trend line support near 134.00.

In summary, it’s going to be a lot of tight range trading until the 134.00 support level gives way. But if it does, we’ll likely see selling pressure intensify.

EURJPY rising wedge on the daily chart

Although more difficult to read than the EURJPY, the GBPJPY is another yen cross to keep an eye on this week.

I should clarify, though. The pair was more difficult to read before Friday’s close. Since that time it’s become quite clear what is happening here.

If you recall from the January 19 commentary, the rally was at risk below 153.80 on a daily closing basis (5 pm EST). Now, the pair ended up climbing back above this area, but there was no real opportunity to short it anyway.

Notice where the GBPJPY closed last week. The final print at 153.68 puts the pair back below that 153.80 area. It means the upper boundary of the wedge we discussed on January 19 is being respected on a weekly closing basis.

Last week’s price action also carved a bearish pin bar.

GBPJPY bearish pin bar on the weekly chart

On Thursday I commented in the member’s area to wait and see whether or not the GBPJPY would close the week below 153.80. At the time the pair was still trading near 154.60.

It turns out I should have listened to my intuition by shorting Friday’s rally, which eventually lost more than 200 pips.

If the 153.80 area is back in play as resistance, it should cap any early advances this week. I’ll be watching closely to see what kind of price action forms during Monday’s session.

For those looking for a more conservative approach, keep an eye on wedge support near 152.00. A daily close below that would open up 149.35 followed by 147.00.

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Rising wedge on GBPJPY daily time frame

Leave a Comment:

22 comments
peter says

can cover audjpy?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Maybe tomorrow.

    Reply
Albert says

Justin, I’m a bit worry about the GBPJPY. Last week it has a high Gap-Opening.
Does it matter?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    I’m not sure I understand the question. I don’t trade in the first few hours of the week, so I’m not concerned about the potential for a gap.

    Reply
      Albert Sim says

      Sorry Justin.
      What I mean is a higher Gap-Opening normally denotes a bullish momentum, right?
      If it is, will it contradicting the bearish outlooks of that Pin Bar?
      Your feedback will be much appreciated. TQ.

      Reply
        santosh adhikari says

        Wow

        Reply
        Justin Bennett says

        It didn’t gap higher. Even last week wasn’t a gap of any real significance in my opinion.

        Reply
          Albert Sim says

          TQ Justin. You’ve cleared my doubts. Last week’s open though was higher than the close of the week before but was still below the High of it.

          Reply
          Albert Sim says

          Btw Justin, I’m yet to become one of your members and as a guest here only but you still take the troubles to answer my queries. That’s the quality of a good mentor.
          My respect to you, Sir.

          Reply
Md Rahman says

Dear sir,
Tomorrow or day after tomorrow I will join of your DPA paid members area.Could you please send me the link where I can join there whereas could you please mention here that what kind of facilities I will get there.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    This page explains everything:

    https://dailypriceaction.com/forex-price-action-course-sale

    Reply
      Prabhu Ramachandran says

      Justin,
      Is it possible to do a bank transfer to cover the fees for the DPA???

      Reply
        Justin Bennett says

        It’s PayPal or major credit card only. I can also accept Skrill. Send me an email if you’re interested.

        Reply
JOHN GAVIN says

I WOULD LIKE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF YOU OFFER FOR THE LIFETIME MEMBERSHIP; HOWEVER I AM A SENIOR CITIZEN AND LIVE ON SOCIAL SECURITY WHICH COMES TO ME EVERY MONTH ABOUT THE 10TH OF THE MONTH- I have run out of funds before I ran out of month

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Francis says

Hello Sir, good day sir. am Francis from Nigeria and I want to know how to possibly analyze trade setups before placing a trade. am a new trader please. Thanks.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    That’s a very open-ended question. Feel free to browse the hundreds of lessons on this site.

    Reply
Vijai says

Thank you very much, Justin. This article is very useful for me. Wait, wait,wait for the best chance.:)

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derrick says

last week i bought gbpusd daily but it looks dissapointing on platform now i feel like canceling it but let me hold on since its a demo account

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Aaisha says

👍

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Israel says

Justin do you trade pinbars on a continuous trend? If you do how do you trade them? because most of the time are profitable in a turn.

Reply
Haitham says

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Alex andalibfard says

Mr Justin Bennett last week I start looking at charts that you had in a week of January 29 to Feb 2 it help me a lot and I thank you very much my problem is with different candles that they tell you when you should go in and out and you spoked about it really good , please if you can talk about it more in this coming week and if you have knew ideas on the different pairs . I THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

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