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Gold (XAUUSD) Rally at Risk Below 1480

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Important: This site uses New York Close Forex Charts so that each 24-hour session starts and ends at 5 pm EST. These charts are essential for trading price action.

Gold (XAUUSD) has been trending higher since May.

And it hasn’t been a slow grind higher either.

This has been one of the most aggressive rallies from the metal since early 2016 when gold went from 1050 to 1370 in seven months.

What’s even more impressive about the recent rally is the gain to loss ratio on the weekly time frame.

Gold weekly chart showing one losing week
Gold aggressive uptrend since May

Between mid-May and mid-August, XAUUSD only experienced one down week.

That’s one red week out of fourteen!

But did you notice something that isn’t so bullish about the weekly chart above?

Go ahead and take another look.

Do you see it?

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Last week’s range carved a bearish engulfing candle.

And so far, sellers are following through on that sell signal quite aggressively.

In fact, XAUUSD is approaching a confluence of support at 1480 that if broken, could signal the end of this rally.

At a minimum, it would likely trigger a significant pullback.

As always, though, it’s going to take a daily close below 1480 to open up downside targets.

One of those targets is 1450.

That area marks the highs from mid-July and early August.

However, I do think that if the 1480 support area fails, we could see gold pullback all the way toward the 1410 region.

Not only has 1410 been a key factor on the weekly time frame, but it’s also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the year-to-date range.

There’s even potential for a more significant pullback given the breakdown of a broader pattern I just pointed out to Daily Price Action members in today’s video.

Either way, I think this gold rally is in desperate need of a pullback toward 1450, 1410, or perhaps even lower.

A close below the confluence of support at 1480 is all we need.

Want to watch a video of how I’m trading gold?

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Gold XAUUSD upward sloping flag pattern
Gold upward sloping flag showing bearish potential below 1480

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35 comments
Justin Bennett says

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These charts give you five 24-hour sessions each week. They are essential if you trade from the daily or 4-hour time frames. Anything else can produce false buy and sell signals.

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Xolani says

Hi Justin

In my 7 months since I started this Forex journey you been my rock in building my confidence and to set & forget my trades . Your analysis are a very strong base on my trades in every week or day . You are my Mentor sir and I salute you. By the way what are the 2 Moving Averages you using because price has a great respect on them if you looking at it as another form of confirmation besides Price Action.

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    Justin Bennett says

    Wow, I greatly appreciate that! I’m glad to hear you’ve found all the content helpful. Cheers.

    Reply
mbagafx says

thanks for ur good stetergy sir

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Abul Hasanath says

Thanks for the analysis.
There is an ascending channel in the weekly. Gold broke the channel resistance last month and stayed above for four weeks. This turned out to be a false break as you told several times in your analysis that a resistance break of an ascending channel does not last long.
Any ways, waiting for the 1480 break and thanks again.

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    Justin Bennett says

    Correct. We’ve discussed it in the member’s area.

    Reply
POLA P says

ANALOGY: No one can breathe out forever!! THANKS!

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Doan Trinh says

very good

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P says

Very excellent, spot on analysis, Mr Bennett. Good job.

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Zack says

How to set those moving averages? Thanks

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    Nihat says

    Moving average is 10, 20 ema.

    Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    I use the 10 and 20 EMAs. As for how to implement them, that will depend on the platform you’re using.

    Reply
Sumantra halder says

Excellent analysis

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fawaz bamakrait says

i am on this trade (i have some pieces of gold ).i trade when it goes up .and sell on any resistance ,great analysis my friend .that exactly what is my expectation for this metal.

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linda martin says

Love reading your thoughts on where price is going re forex .. very informative -I’m only just getting back into trading (on demo) until I feel more confident and this is the only reason I haven’t joined up yet.. keep posting your stuff it’s great and helps us newbies a lot..

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    Justin Bennett says

    Thanks, Linda. More content on the way!

    Reply
HABIBU says

This is educative and though simple yet comprehensive approach to price action behaviours. I like you and thanks

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. Thanks for sharing that.

    Reply
Ayo says

Thanks for this XAUUSD l m follow it.respect for you bros

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Andrea G says

Gold is going down and it will go to 1357.64 with Retracements in between

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Tabaruk says

Much appreciated !!! Thanks.

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NADZUAH says

Thank you sir Justin your great…..

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re very welcome.

    Reply
Shaolin says

I personally prefer it didn’t break 1480! I am wishing for 1700+ by EOY 😛 – But lets say if it does break 1480, then 1436-40 ought to hold! Breaking that, 🙁 the best strong support is at 1360-66. Everything else in between, is just fluff 😀

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Ossai Ezekiel C says

I must say you’re wonderful from the little I’ve observed. I’m yet to say anything more till I’m engrafted and proved what I’m seeing. Thanks.

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DAVID IFEAJIKA says

Good Day sir, have been following XAUUSD on Bullish, your latest analysis on the pair gave me a strong insight of the next move in anticipation to 14.80 key level. thanks a lot a bed rock to new Forex Trader is what i call you Sir.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re very welcome.

    Reply
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