Daily Price Action
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Gold Retests September Lows at 1193

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.

Gold has been trending lower for the better part of 2018. Apart from the first four months of the year, sellers have had control without much argument from buyers.

The closest gold bulls have come to reversing the trend came on August 16 when the market reached a year-to-date low of 1160. However, the relief rally sputtered out at the end of August, and the market has been moving sideways ever since.

Yesterday’s selloff attempted to reestablish the 2018 downtrend, but buyers have stepped in so far today. In fact, they’ve erased most of yesterday’s losses.

That said, gold is currently retesting several September lows as new resistance. The 1193 area attracted buyers between the 4th and 26th of this month. It should, therefore, serve as new resistance moving forward.

As I type this, gold is retesting those lows near 1193. But so far, the price action isn’t giving any indication that it’s time to sell. That’s especially relevant given that it’s Friday as well as the last trading day of the month, so we’d expect to see some erratic behavior today.

To continue playing devil’s advocate, the downtrend that began in April is getting stretched. Not so much on the daily or weekly time frames, but the 10 and 20 EMAs on the monthly chart are up near 1250.

Translation: There may not be much downside left, but if there is, it’s likely to materialize near 1193 resistance.

One way to combat negative factors like the ones I just mentioned is to stay patient and wait for a price action signal. Perhaps the market will show its hand next week with a bearish pin bar near 1193.

Alternatively, if gold begins to close back above those September lows at 1193, it’s probably best to stand aside. Such a move would expose the next resistance area at 1208.

For now though, the 1193 area is resistance. Bearish price action from this area next week could take the market back to the year-to-date low at 1160. We could also see some support build near 1182.

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Gold daily chart

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16 comments
Bilal Jadoon says

Thanks Justin.. i am happy that you shared some analysis about gold.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Ezekiel says

My good mentor. I never knew you trade Gold. That is my favorite pair with EURUSD.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    I don’t, at least not via XAUUSD. U.S. law prohibits it. This commentary is for the 90% of DPA that resides outside the U.S.

    Reply
Nafisa Bello says

Thank you for the gold analysis.
Dies that mean gold is likely to go bearish again ?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. Take another look at the post. All of my thoughts are there. 🙂

    Reply
Peter says

I have been monitoring the price consolidation for 3 weeks now and am thanks a lot for throwing more light on the price action.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Anytime, Peter. Enjoy your weekend.

    Reply
Esihle says

Thanks Justin…

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    My pleasure.

    Reply
Ravi says

Thanks a Lot…Justin…..for considering my kind request…….

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Ravi says

Once again many many thanks for provided valuable analysis……

Reply
jenerali says

Thanks for bringing gold up

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Sipho Moloi says

We appreciate , we learn a lot!

Reply
Felix says

Thanks Justin. God bless you Sir.

Reply
Nyala says

Thanks so much sir ,good to read about gold I was always waiting your analysis .

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