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GBPUSD: Broader Technicals Aren’t So Bearish

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GBPUSD caught a bid this week at a level I mentioned on Sunday.

The short-term trend line that extends from the year-to-date low is propping up the pair at the moment.

However, buyers slipped yesterday after retesting the 1.3200 resistance level.

That area actually extends up to the 1.3300 handle.

One thing that has become apparent this week is the indecision plaguing the pound.

We already knew that was the case, but this week’s price action has confirmed just how uncertain the market is about the future direction of the currency.

Of course, the GBPUSD is being influenced by the ongoing Brexit drama on a day-to-day basis.

That’s what has made trading the pair so tricky.

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Much of the future direction for the GBPUSD also rests on the shoulders of the U.S. dollar.

The greenback has been trending higher since February of last year, but I’m starting to see cracks in the bullish narrative.

In fact, USD bulls started having issues last December even though sellers haven’t followed through just yet.

As we know, though, that can change in a hurry.

It’s times like this that I look to the weekly time frame for clarity.

GBPUSD trend line and channel

The chart above shows the price action over the last five and a half years.

That trend line resistance that broke in December of 2017 started back at the 2014 high, so we’re dealing with longer-term themes here.

Now consider this…

GBPUSD broke that long-term trend line in December 2017 but didn’t retest the level as new support until August of last year.

It’s clear that Brexit has played its part in keeping prices suppressed.

But the technicals since 2014 paint a very different picture than the bearish one you probably hear most often.

So what’s the key takeaway here?

Don’t discount the potential for a bullish GBPUSD.

There’s a lot of bearish rhetoric floating around the internet, but I’m not buying it.

Or should I say selling it?

Based on the technicals alone, GBPUSD has every chance of rallying in 2019.

I could be very wrong here. I’m also not in a hurry to buy the pound at current levels, mostly because of the choppiness below 1.3300.

If I want to take advantage of any USD weakness going forward, I would rather trade the more stable EURUSD.

That’s just personal preference though.

GBPUSD will likely need to climb above the 1.3300 range ceiling for buyers to find their footing.

A break above that area could easily take the pound to 1.3800.

Alternatively, a close below the short-term trend line could take GBPUSD back to ascending channel support near 1.2500.

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GBPUSD key levels on the daily time frame

Leave a Comment:

22 comments
Adebayo saheed says

Good analysis… Thanks

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Omodara says

Awesome sir, thank you

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    My pleasure.

    Reply
Emmanuel Pyuza says

Thanks… for your alart!!!!

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Anytime!

    Reply
NiZa says

Succinct! Thanks

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
aaisha says

i think we cannot take decisions just on the basis of trend lines

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Well then it’s a good thing I use more than trend lines.

    Reply
    DALE says

    If you are following Justin for a long time, you can notice that he aint following trendlines “alone”, even in most price action traders, they use the principle of confluence. Yes you are right, trendlines aint enough, you need to combine it with few others.

    Reply
Rabani says

Thanks alot sir

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome, Rabani.

    Reply
Peter promise says

Thanks Justin

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Anytime, Peter.

    Reply
nadzuah says

thanks

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Sure thing.

    Reply
DK says

I totally agree with you 1.330 level. Breaking above that and closing on the daily basis would confirm a higher rally.

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Marshal Solomon says

Sir, I must say you’re the best both in risk management timing and analysis, keep doing good job, God bless you for changing lives

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Cheers. Thanks for the kind words and support.

    Reply
OGBORO preciouslife says

Nice one

Reply
Ali Asad says

God bless you may u live long
fantastic analysis

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