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GBPNZD Terminal Pattern to Give Way to 600-Pip Target

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Earlier today I wrote about a 500-pip opportunity on GBPAUD.

It isn’t confirmed yet, but it does appear to be just days away now.

It’s only fitting then to have a similarly sized opportunity developing on the pair’s counterpart, the GBPNZD.

This one is a little more complex though.

We have a few patterns in play on GBPNZD. And when we put them together, we get an excellent view of the pair’s technical landscape.

First up is the multi-year ascending channel that extends from the November 2016 low.

Here’s a view of it from the weekly time frame:

GBPNZD weekly ascending channel

Notice how the channel above has directed the GBPNZD incredibly well since its inception several years ago.

Patterns like the one above are a great place to start.

But we need to dive deeper to understand whether the market is more likely to retest channel support or resistance next.

After all, more than 2,000 pips separate the two levels.

You could argue that a move higher is likely given the retest of channel support last December.

However, the sideways movement in 2019 combined with the trend line from the January 2018 low paint a different picture.

As you can see from the chart below, GBPNZD is holding below that January 2018 trend line.

Furthermore, the short-term trend line from the December 2018 low creates a rising wedge.

A rising or ascending wedge like this one usually suggests exhaustion from buyers.

Look no further than the one on gold I wrote about on Monday.

For now, it’s going to take a daily close below support near 1.9020/30 to confirm the short setup.

Until then, GBPNZD is susceptible to bounces from short-term support.

Keep in mind too that we have an RBNZ rate decision and statement coming up in a few hours at 9 pm EST.

Considering the volatile that events like those often produce, it may be a good idea to stay on the sideline until the dust settles.

But as always, it depends on your trading style and risk tolerance.

My target following a daily close below wedge support comes in near 1.8400.

Alternatively, a bounce from 1.9020/30 support would have me watching for bearish price action such as a pin bar from the 1.9550 resistance area.

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GBPNZD rising wedge pattern

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14 comments
Justin Bennett says

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saeed says

great as alwayes

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Matt says

Insightful as always, thank you so much Sir. Have a good one, cheers.

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Hernando A Hincapie says

Good afternoon, if we look at this pair could continue bearish if it breaks the trend line that comes from Dec of 2018, corroborates this when plotting a Fibo from the maximum of Oct of 2018 until the minimum of December 2018, we see that the pair corrects up the 61.8 of Fibo and it goes back until possibly looking for the zero point in the 1.81400 with a stop in the previous support for the 1.86500 that corresponds to the 23.6 of Fibo. Otherwise, if it bounces on the trend line, it could look for the dynamic resistance line at Fibo 61.8.
In summary I would expect bearish confirmation in the next day, which is the most viable since a double roof has been formed in the day.
Tell me illustrious if my analysis is correct or wrong, I would greatly appreciate your comment and what I do wrong, what is good and thank you for your contributions.
Translated by Google

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    Justin Bennett says

    My thoughts are in the post above.

    Reply
Steve Majors says

Thank you Justin. What do you think about the gbp/usd? It appears it could be bearish as well. Cheers

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Respect says

Awesome analysis as always. I will keep an eye.

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Chris says

The rate decision you mentioned pushed it back up the top of the channel. Would that signal rapid movement to the downside?

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    Justin Bennett says

    It will be important to watch how the market reacts to resistance over the coming days. I’m in no hurry to short it, though.

    Reply
Siyabonga Mkhize says

Mmmn nice analysis, cheers

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    Justin Bennett says

    Thanks, Siyabonga.

    Reply
hn says

its not 500 pip down but 500 pip up now

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    Justin Bennett says

    Not surprising given Wednesday’s RBNZ and the fact that GBPNZD was still above support before those events. I mentioned all of that in the post.

    Furthermore, the move lower I hinted at requires a daily close below the short-term trend line. That hasn’t occurred yet. Again, it’s all in the post above.

    Reply
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