GBPNZD False Break in Progress?

by Justin Bennett  · 

May 7, 2019

by Justin Bennett  · 

May 7, 2019

by Justin Bennett  · 

May 7, 2019

Important: This site uses New York Close Forex Charts so that each 24-hour session starts and ends at 5 pm EST. These charts are essential for trading price action.

I have written about GBPNZD a few times recently. I even mentioned that it could be the top trade idea of 2019 back on April 26th.

The premise of the idea was a rising wedge pattern.

This particular formation is a bit unique in that the upper level extends from the January 2018 low which previously served as channel support.

Wedge support, on the other hand, extends from the December 2018 low.

If you’ve been following along, you have no doubt noticed that GBPNZD recently closed above wedge resistance.

That’s against the grain of a rising wedge like the one in the chart below.

Typically, a rising or ascending structure will produce a break lower.

But don’t dismiss this wedge just yet.

Sometimes a market needs to make a final push before those in control become exhausted. In this case, I’m referring to GBPNZD bulls.

You could think of it as a “last gasp” from buyers.

However, sellers need to secure a daily close back inside this wedge top near 1.9650 to turn this false break theory into an actionable idea.

Until that happens, attempting to short GBPNZD is a risky endeavor.

We may not have to wait long to find out, though.

The upcoming RBNZ rate decision and statement at 10 pm EST will shed some light on the likely future direction for GBPNZD.

With that in mind, it makes sense to stay on the sideline until the dust settles from the upcoming events.

We don’t have a confirmed short opportunity just yet, and the increase in volatility around 10 pm EST will make conditions less than favorable.

A daily close below the 1.9650 region would expose wedge support near 1.9450 with a break below that opening the door to 1.9050.

Alternatively, as long as GBPNZD stays above 1.9650 on a daily closing basis, buyers are in the driver’s seat.

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GBPNZD rising wedge pattern

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  2. how is this going to happen given the nzd has been the weakest currency since the beginning of 2019 while pound is the strongest. no wonder this pair does not obey the normal rules because investors don’t pay attention to wedges. not to mention there are tons of bad data coming for nzd.

    1. What do you mean by “how is this going to happen”?

      A currency’s strength or weakness is in a constant state of flux. If it weren’t, everything would just move in one direction.

  3. If you join the new high to the first high of your wedge , you get a top line which is parallel to the bottom line of your wedge.

    1. Why not a false break…..on the daily the 0.886 Fibonacci is reached at the 2.0196 whilst in the weekly it is reached at 2.137….Hope this helps ALL those that are lost.

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