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GBPJPY Under Pressure Following Last Week’s Breakdown

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Following last week’s break of key support at 143.00, the GBPJPY is in the process of retesting the area as new resistance. Monday’s price action came close to testing the 143.00 region, but even the session high was approximately 100 pips below the mean as measured by the 10 and 20 EMAs.

As you may well know, I use these two moving averages as a mean reversion tool. If the price is too far below them, I won’t sell, and I stay clear of buying a market that is trading too far above them.

So far today is carving a bearish pin bar after testing 143.00 as new resistance. However, even with this favorable price action there are two things to keep in mind.

The first is that we are still hours away from the New York close at 5 pm EST. So even though today’s session is showing rejection from the new resistance area, it’s far from a confirmed sell signal.

The second thing to pay attention to is where the 10 and 20 EMAs are located even after today’s intraday spike above 143.00. Yes, the price is getting closer to the mean, but we could see some additional consolidation here before the next leg lower begins.

Key resistance remains the 143.00 handle on a daily closing basis. A move lower would likely encounter buying pressure at the April swing low of 135.60. Keep in mind that the 140.50 area could also attract a few buyers on the way down.

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GBPJPY bearish price action

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14 comments
Darius says

Why isn’t august 10 candle confirming that its a sell signal, and we can sell at retest 143 level?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    It all depends on your style of trading, Darius. There’s no single best way to enter, only the one that works best for you.

    Reply
      Luka says

      Sory Justin for OT. Links in email “This is first…” do not work. I sent you an email too, but I am unpatient 🙂

      Reply
Luka says

And question about this setup.
Yesterday pin bar was good “signal” too. This resistance level is quite blur. Can be set lower too and have quite the same “confirmation” from the past too.
I didnt take that trade, becasuse body was bullish and candle tail just didnt “fit” inthere well. I think yesterday pinbar would be legit set order too. Would be?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    I answered that in the first paragraph.

    Reply
      Luka says

      Oh, I am sory. English is not my native language and I missunderstood part with EMAs. Sory again!

      Reply
        Justin Bennett says

        No worries. The basic idea is that yesterday’s price was too far below the 10 and 20 EMAs, which represent the mean. I also mentioned this in the member’s area.

        Reply
          Luka says

          damn… this EMA realy works for this meaning. I will read in member area if you will be kind to resend me link. It just blank page. I guess you can see my email here. Its the same.
          Thanks for sharing your knowelege! I

          Reply
samson says

THANKS, I AM SO GRATEFUL FOR YOUR HELP JUSTIN.

I HAVE GONE THROUGH THE FREE WEBINAR (7 SECRETS TO CONSISTENT FOREX PROFIT) ITS SO WONDERFUL AND YOU DID A GRATE JOB IN THE WEBINAR. YOU EXPLAIN LITTLE ABOUT THE USE OF 10 AND 20 EMAS, I KNOW IT IS A VERY GOOD INDICATOR TO TRADE WITH. I DON’T KNOW IF YOU CAN HELP IN PUTTING MORE LIGHT ON THE USE OF THE EMAS.

I AM SO GRATEFUL FOR ALL YOUR HELP AND LESSONS, GOD BLESS YOU.

Reply
R Mngadi says

What is the ideal number of pips
away from the price you consider before initiating a trade?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    There isn’t a specific number. It just depends on the situation and the currency pair in question.

    Reply
hamdy says

👍👍👍👍👍👍👍

Reply
Darius says

Today one more candle down, and we are I think at support 139.985.

So it should be sold bit too quickly and I feel that there will be correction. Maybe we should add now tight trailing stop? My target is 138.6 as you said somewhere it is key support.

Now it is testing also the trendline from july 23 connected with august 11, and with all those factors it might be hard to break this. But so far at moment of writing is doing good.

So probably if candle closes below this trendline, it will reach 138.6 quickly. On the other hand it would be very steep moving move down.

If the tight trailing stop is beaten and price jumps back to some level like 140.5 could also sell. WHich would mean at better price.

But also there is small posibility that price will not jump back. Maybe it is too small, because it was going 3rd day in a row with 2 big candles. I understand this day had not ended yet, and even today price might move back a lot.

Actually I am really surprised that it fallled through 140.500 and 141.510 which looked like super strong level, I was considering to add tight trailing stop when was at 141.510

Reply
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