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GBPJPY Recap and Outlook for Next Week

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

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On Sunday I discussed a level on the GBPJPY that was likely to attract selling pressure. The 150.70 handle served as a pivot for the pair between the 28th of March and the 20th of April.

The sub 150.70 close on April 27 suggested that any retest of the area as new resistance would encounter sellers.

Sure enough, Monday reached the 150.70 area just before hitting a wall of offers and a session high of 150.85. As you can see from the chart below, the next four sessions produced down days, and the GBPJPY is still 300 pips below the 150.70 handle.

Another level I pointed out on Sunday was channel support at 147.00. This past session carved a low of 147.05 before bouncing 60 pips into the close.

So where does this leave us for next week?

Let’s start with what I wrote last Sunday…

In my opinion, the GBPJPY (and other yen pairs) are gearing up for what could be a substantial move south. Whether it occurs next month or six months from now is unclear.

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That said, channel support near 147.00 is a vital clue. If the GBPJPY moves to retest this area again over the coming weeks, it would suggest an imminent breakdown.

In my opinion, Friday’s retest of channel support at 147.00 is that clue we’ve been waiting for. That doesn’t mean the GBPJPY will plummet next week. In fact, I’m anticipating some strength early next week as long as 147.00 holds as support.

However, there’s no doubt that the pair is starting to lean on channel support. Look no further than the way buyers failed to challenge the February highs during the latest rally that topped out on April 13.

A lower high? So far the answer is yes.

I remain short from 150.70. Those interested in shorting the GBPJPY may want to wait for a daily close (using a New York close chart) below channel support near the 147.00 handle. It would be difficult to secure a favorable enough risk to reward ratio with an alternate approach.

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GBPJPY ascending channel

Leave a Comment:

20 comments
Ahm says

Wait for next upcoming day, thanks

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. Enjoy your weekend.

    Reply
Mustafa says

Hi Justin, can you please explain what do you mean by daily close?

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DS says

Akan kemana arah pergerakan harga GBPJPY untuk minggu depan tanggal 7 mey sampai dengan 11 mey mendatang

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    Asher says

    brdasarkn analysis ini, kalau awal minggu ini 147.00 support channel kuat & ada price action on daily chart, targetnya ke atas. Bullish.

    Reply
    agus says

    wkwkwk ada juga bahasa yang mudah di mengerti

    Reply
    rizki says

    Ikut nimrung gan hhaha

    Reply
Pierre Mifsud says

You are spot on and agree with my analysis——GBPJPY will reach 145.30

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Suresh Sekaran says

Hi Justin, thank you for your analysis. But can you explain your reasons why you believe the yen pairs are gearing up for a substantial move south?

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andrea says

Hi Justin, a bullish pin bar with a long tail formed at 148 area where a trend line connecting the 2016 low and a more recent low in early March was acting as support (in my opinion). I closed my short position there. What is your comment on such error (if this is so because I entered at 151)? Thanks in advance for your eventual reply

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    andrea says

    i forgot to say that the pin bar formed in the 4 hours time frame on 4h of May. i am sure you did see that. What did you think when you saw that?

    Reply
Asher says

Hi,Justin. Thank you for ur analaysis. So, from analysis, we can conclude that,the channel is quite strong and will wait for daily price action to confirm it will go up through channel.

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    Asher says

    What if the price is breaking the channel or fakeout? how do you identify whether breakout or fake breakout?

    Reply
Chris says

All signs are pointing to a move south during the course of next week. Thanks again man!

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ADEEL says

Thank you sir.you are such a great man..

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Imi says

Hi and thanks for your recommendation but these days the way this pair has been moving was like GBPUSD exactly, even the amount of decreasing By the way lot of thanks for your suggestion.

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Bunthean says

I want to join your signal group . How can I join

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derrick says

thanks for the update

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Michelo says

Correct me if I am wrong I feel it will go bullish .if you check the w1 trend line. Advice please

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