GBPJPY Recap and Outlook for Next Week

·    May 4, 2018

·      May 4, 2018

·    May 4, 2018


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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

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On Sunday I discussed a level on the GBPJPY that was likely to attract selling pressure. The 150.70 handle served as a pivot for the pair between the 28th of March and the 20th of April.

The sub 150.70 close on April 27 suggested that any retest of the area as new resistance would encounter sellers.

Sure enough, Monday reached the 150.70 area just before hitting a wall of offers and a session high of 150.85. As you can see from the chart below, the next four sessions produced down days, and the GBPJPY is still 300 pips below the 150.70 handle.

Another level I pointed out on Sunday was channel support at 147.00. This past session carved a low of 147.05 before bouncing 60 pips into the close.

So where does this leave us for next week?

Let’s start with what I wrote last Sunday…

In my opinion, the GBPJPY (and other yen pairs) are gearing up for what could be a substantial move south. Whether it occurs next month or six months from now is unclear.

That said, channel support near 147.00 is a vital clue. If the GBPJPY moves to retest this area again over the coming weeks, it would suggest an imminent breakdown.

In my opinion, Friday’s retest of channel support at 147.00 is that clue we’ve been waiting for. That doesn’t mean the GBPJPY will plummet next week. In fact, I’m anticipating some strength early next week as long as 147.00 holds as support.

However, there’s no doubt that the pair is starting to lean on channel support. Look no further than the way buyers failed to challenge the February highs during the latest rally that topped out on April 13.

A lower high? So far the answer is yes.

I remain short from 150.70. Those interested in shorting the GBPJPY may want to wait for a daily close (using a New York close chart) below channel support near the 147.00 handle. It would be difficult to secure a favorable enough risk to reward ratio with an alternate approach.

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GBPJPY ascending channel


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20  Comments

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    1. brdasarkn analysis ini, kalau awal minggu ini 147.00 support channel kuat & ada price action on daily chart, targetnya ke atas. Bullish.

  1. Hi Justin, thank you for your analysis. But can you explain your reasons why you believe the yen pairs are gearing up for a substantial move south?

  2. Hi Justin, a bullish pin bar with a long tail formed at 148 area where a trend line connecting the 2016 low and a more recent low in early March was acting as support (in my opinion). I closed my short position there. What is your comment on such error (if this is so because I entered at 151)? Thanks in advance for your eventual reply

    1. i forgot to say that the pin bar formed in the 4 hours time frame on 4h of May. i am sure you did see that. What did you think when you saw that?

  3. Hi,Justin. Thank you for ur analaysis. So, from analysis, we can conclude that,the channel is quite strong and will wait for daily price action to confirm it will go up through channel.

    1. What if the price is breaking the channel or fakeout? how do you identify whether breakout or fake breakout?

  4. Hi and thanks for your recommendation but these days the way this pair has been moving was like GBPUSD exactly, even the amount of decreasing By the way lot of thanks for your suggestion.

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