Daily Price Action
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GBPCAD: Why the Remainder of 2018 Rests Upon 1.7180

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.

So far, the GBPCAD is holding below a level I’ve discussed several times in recent weeks. The 1.7300 handle previously served as range support between the 2nd and 17th of July.

That all changed one day later on July 18th. The sub 1.7300 close that I wrote about here meant that the level should begin attracting sellers. I even included the GBPCAD in the most recent Sunday forecast.

Despite rising above 1.7300 intraday, buyers have so far failed to close the pair back above the level. In fact, today’s price action has already erased this week’s gains.

Because of the neckline support that extends from the year to date low in January, the GBPCAD will be forced to make a decision very soon.

Here’s a look at the pending head and shoulders pattern that began late last year:

GBPCAD possible head and shoulders pattern

At this point, the pound cross is about 50 pips away from confirming the structure above which could trigger a multi-month decline. If we take the 1,500 pip height of the structure and measure from the 1.7200 area, we get an objective of 1.5700.

It just so happens that the 2016 low, which was also a three and a half year low, comes in at 1.5692. That will vary depending on your broker, but it’s safe to say there’s quite a lot happening in the 1.5700 region.

Now, to be clear, a drop of that magnitude would take months to play out. It may even take years. But even if you don’t use 1.5700 as a target, finding evidence to suggest a 1,500 pip decline means you probably won’t want to be a buyer anytime soon.

In other words, at this time I’m only interested in GBPCAD shorts. That’s been the case since the pair carved the June 22nd bearish pin bar. And if sellers can clear neckline support on a daily closing basis (New York 5 pm EST), it will only strengthen the bearish outlook.

As for key areas to keep an eye on should neckline support fail, the May low at 1.7060 is sure to attract a few bids. A close below that would expose key support at 1.6820 which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci of the September 2017 to March 2018 range.

If buyers manage to close the pair back above 1.7300, it would postpone the move lower and expose the former range ceiling at 1.7440.

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GBPCAD key daily levels

Leave a Comment:

23 comments
lucas says

thanks justin

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
      Gideon says

      Justin I can’t thank you enough for the effort you are making to better the life of many traders including me I must be honest as Pastor since I have started reading your articles on Forex reading my mentality and my view and perception in FOREX trading has changed dramatically once again thank you and God will surely reward youand your family and Your crew member. Very soon I will be one of your members. But please will you give me access when I am ready to join? Because I can see the deadline given has closed. I made all efforts to be part before the closing date but I couldn’t make it. Thank you and God bless your efforts real good

      Reply
matt says

thks, your really doing a great job, at first i was lossing following your commentary, but i later realise that is all my fault because i was so much in a rush to press the buy or sell button. am learning to be more patient and alway wait for entry signals to form properly

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Cheers. Patience is key.

    Reply
Pascal says

You’re always on point,thanks a lot.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Pierre Mifsud says

at the time of writing the GBP is stronger than the CAD…..so the 1.73 handle should be easily reached or more

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Recent GBPCAD movement disagrees with that statement.

    Reply
Jason says

Hello Justin, I saw someone stealing your analysis and just copying and pasting.
hermya(dot)com/gbpcad-why-the-remainder-of-2018…
He is on Instagram as hermyaa_

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Thanks, Jason. It isn’t the first time someone has tried to steal all of my content. It’s pathetic.

    Please spread the word that this individual is a fraud. Thanks again.

    Reply
Bartholomeus Jordaan says

I can only SALUTE you like a soldier in trading terms!! Most money I have ever made on GBP/CAD and bought sell pullback sell!You are the King of Analisys!Cant wait to join your Community. But it ia an in intrestesting one to learn and make money and test your skills.

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Joel says

Justin you are smart, you are brave. I appreciate.

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basem says

Dear Justin does your analysis apply for euro/cad it seems behaving the same way

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djtradex49 says

Good things come to those who wait! (y)

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Rene says

Justin, I am learning from all your analysis, thank you.
Rene

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EUGENE says

brilliant!

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Yinka says

Thanks Justin would short this pair now or wait for a retest of the neckline.

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Olorunsola Tolu says

I want to really thank big boss Justin. I first came across his article on forexfactory. Before I was a desperate trader. But I later knew the meaning of waiting for daily end of candle and the essence of patience and waiting valid signal. I must establish that Justin’s view about the market is 100%. May God bless him and his crew. I hope someday I will be become his lifetime premium member of his trading club. Mr Justin is a blessing to those who understand the market.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. My views certainly aren’t correct 100% of the time, but I’m glad to know you’re finding them helpful.

    Reply
Ismo says

GBPCAD is good to go now, the 1.7180 support already crossed ,

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    Roy says

    Yep. In this trade for a while. Could be months!

    Reply
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