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GBPAUD to Eye 400-Pip Target Next Week

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We’ve waited all month for GBPAUD to clear a particular support level.

On March 4th I pointed out a 1,440 pip range that has contained the pair since September of last year.

At the time, GBPAUD was testing the range ceiling at 1.8720.

The pair ended up moving sideways for the next three weeks.

But things started to progress for sellers earlier this week. On Tuesday I wrote that GBPAUD was close to confirming a 500-pip opportunity.

Fast forward to Friday’s close, and you can see how the pair has cleared channel support on a daily and weekly closing basis.

That could be a big deal as we head into next week.

Keep in mind too that GBPUSD closed below a critical support level on Thursday.

That breakdown on the pound could help push an already vulnerable GBPAUD lower next week.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on the area between 1.8430 and 1.8470.

A retest of this (new) resistance area will likely encounter an influx of selling pressure.

And if sellers can follow through on Friday’s break, there isn’t much in the way of support until 1.7930.

You can see how this level has served as a pivot of sorts since December 2017.

There is a chance GBPAUD will return to the multi-month range support at 1.7280.

However, that may take several weeks or even months.

As for event risk next week, you’ll want to put the RBA rate decision and statement on your calendar.

Those events will take place on Monday at 11:30 pm EST.

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GBPAUD break below channel support

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20 comments
Justin Bennett says

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Matt says

Great analysis and thank you for sharing Sir. Stay Blessed

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. Enjoy your weekend.

    Reply
Michael says

Hope it finally moves…its like the year of ranging and consolidation

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    Justin Bennett says

    Hoping won’t help. In fact, it will only hurt you in the long run.

    Reply
Ridwan says

How do you be on this kind of trades when you don’t take counter trend trades?

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    Pierre Mifsud says

    Simply if there is enough energy to break the support of an ascending channel at 1.8430, which did not happen before for the last months, then now there should potentially be a motive for a possible downtrend. Using an amplified RSI will help to access the relative situation and also by comparing the GBP with other currency pairs like GBPCAD, GBPUSD etc……. but creating counter trades will only make matters worse for you! Hope this help you out in line with what Justin has perfectly explained.

    Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    1) Who said I don’t take counter-trend trades?

    2) GBPAUD has been ranging for seven months as I stated above.

    Reply
Shelly says

Great analysis and thank you for sharing Sir.

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Hossain says

Long sell

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EMMANUEL says

Justin, your analysis is always an eyes opener, but dont you think brexit will have a part to play?

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    Justin Bennett says

    Of course. But I only care about Brexit from a volatility standpoint, not a directional one as it relates to the pound.

    Reply
Collins says

Thank you Justine. You are doing a great job. Please is ur take on gold. It closed above 1228. Is it still bearish. Tnx

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    Collins says

    Sorry ur take on gold.

    Reply
jon says

Once again, top notch analysis. Thanks!

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Peter promise says

Last week analysis on gold was an earthquake.. thanks Justin.. hoping for a better week

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Diana says

What does it mean now that the area of resistance has been broken?

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