In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPCAD, and XAUUSD through October 4, 2019.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
Don’t forget to leave me a comment on YouTube to share your thoughts.
The EURUSD closed out last week as anticipated.
I wasn’t sure whether or not the pair would close back above 1.0930, but I had a strong feeling that the 1.0900 handle would attract buyers.
Those who saw Thursday’s EURUSD video know why.
There is a descending channel that has been in place since August 2018.
In fact, I could make a strong case that the level extends as far back as November 2017.
But regardless, there is quite a lot of support for the euro around 1.0900.
We’ll have to wait and see if Friday’s close back above 1.0930 was material or not.
Was it profit-taking before the weekend or something more?
That’s what we need to find out this week.
If we see buyers step in between 1.0900 and 1.0930 early this week, we could see EURUSD rotate higher to retest that 1.0990 resistance area.
On the other hand, if Friday’s buying was nothing more than profit-takers pushing the pair higher on light volume, we could see the euro trend lower still.
But as long as 1.0900 support is intact on a daily closing basis, sellers need to be careful, in my opinion.
If the support level around 1.0900 fails, we will likely see EURUSD test 1.0850.
Alternatively, a bounce this week from 1.0900/30 would target 1.0990 with a break there exposing the smaller channel resistance near 1.1030/40.
The GBPUSD experienced a relatively hard pullback last week.
It came after the pair reached our second target following the September 4 break above channel resistance.
But last week’s pullback shouldn’t have surprised anyone.
I pointed out the upward sloping flag in last Saturday’s video and how it suggested that a rotation lower into 1.2380 was likely.
I also said in a members-only video that I felt a retest of 1.2290 was the most likely scenario given how aggressive sellers were on Wednesday.
We got that retest just before the weekend.
Now the question is whether or not buyers can force another leg higher.
For that to materialize, I’d like to see GBPUSD bulls hold onto 1.2290 support.
There is also a chance we could see an intraday push into 1.2240 before buyers are ready to retake control.
Be sure to watch the video above to see why 1.2240 could be significant.
Alternatively, a close below the 1.2240 area would expose 1.2170 with a break there taking GBPUSD back to the 1.2015 region.
I discussed EURGBP in last week’s forecast video.
The key takeaway from that video was the fact that the euro cross had been sliding lower just above descending channel support.
As such, I didn’t want to sell the EURGBP.
In fact, I even stated that a retest of the confluence of resistance around 0.8920 was the likely scenario.
I also wrote about EURGBP last Monday where I reminded everyone about 0.8920 resistance.
As you can see, the pair isn’t far away from retesting that area following Friday’s rally.
Now the question becomes, is 0.8920 strong enough to reject this advance?
We’ll have to wait to find out.
Any bearish price action from the 0.8920 region this week could make for an ideal short setup.
On the other hand, a daily close above the level would send the pair higher.
Key support on the way down includes 0.8840 and 0.8760, while resistance levels come in at 0.8920 with a break there exposing 0.9015.
GBPCAD finds itself at a pivotal point this week.
I first wrote about the potential for a break higher on September 9.
The inverse head and shoulders pattern hinted at the potential for a 500 pip move higher given the height of the pattern.
I reminded traders about GBPCAD’s breakout potential again on the 12th, less than 24 hours before the 330 pip single-session rally.
We were well aware of the 1.6600 resistance area that capped the advance and even triggered a reversal on September 20.
But since then it hasn’t been pretty for GBPCAD buyers.
The pair has lost 440 pips since September 20 and also crashed below the 1.6430 area just last week.
However, the inverse head and shoulders is still intact as of Friday’s close.
As long as the 1.6250 support area is intact on a daily closing basis, the pair has the potential to bounce this week.
I’m not saying it will happen, but it is something to keep an eye on.
If GBPCAD bulls can get behind the pair this week, we could see another run at 1.6430, 1.6610, and perhaps even the measured objective at 1.6800.
Alternatively, a daily close below the neckline would negate the idea.
It would also expose the 1.6150 support region.
Despite Friday’s bounce, I still like the idea of a lower XAUUSD this week.
In fact, the bounce from the 1490 area shouldn’t have surprised anyone, at least not those who saw last Tuesday’s post.
That 1490 region is the neckline of what could be a head and shoulders reversal.
Sure enough, we saw 1490 attract buyers just before the weekend.
Furthermore, Wednesday’s selloff from 1535 was right in the middle of the 1530/40 resistance area that I discussed in last week’s video.
That midweek selloff put XAUUSD one step closer to confirming the reversal pattern in the chart below.
There was even a short entry around 1525 in the form of an ascending channel that we discussed in the member’s area.
For the week ahead, the plan remains the same.
A daily close below the neckline around 1485/90 would confirm the bearish reversal pattern.
It would also expose 1450 support followed by the measured objective around 1410.
Alternatively, a move above last week’s high at 1536 would negate the idea.