In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD, and CADJPY through October 25, 2019.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
EURUSD has played out perfectly for us, at least so far.
I’ve discussed the potential for a bullish move from the 1.0900 region for nearly a month now.
I also pointed out the 1.0990 support area in last Saturday’s forecast video.
Notice how last week’s low for EURUSD was 1.0991, just one pip above the support level we were eyeing.
I also wrote about 1.1070 on the 16th.
However, the EURUSD only paused at 1.1070 before going on to close the week at 1.1170.
I still think that a run at 1.1200 and perhaps even the broader channel top around 1.1250/70 is very likely.
That’s my base case for the euro as long as the 1.1070 can act as support in the coming days and weeks.
The rocket that is GBPUSD was in full effect again last week.
In last week’s video, I pointed out how the 1.2570 level would likely serve as support.
Notice Monday’s bullish pin bar from 1.2570.
The buy signal triggered a 380 pip rally over the next four sessions. The GBPUSD even tested the 1.2990 resistance level before the weekend.
I do expect the pound to pull back or at least consolidate at some point in the near future.
The pair is getting overextended, and we haven’t seen much profit-taking since the latest rally began.
Key resistance for the week ahead comes in at 1.2990 with a close above that exposing 1.3170.
Key support is 1.2770 with a close below that exposing 1.2570.
Keep in mind that the British pound is likely to become more volatile as we move through the second half of October.
I wrote about USDCAD on Friday.
In that detailed post, we looked at a potential break below channel support, as well as the recent lower highs and a lower low on the daily chart.
I also pointed out the previous ascending channel from 2016 and 2017 that triggered a 1,100 pip move from USDCAD.
The key will be to see if sellers can defend 1.3130/40 as new resistance.
If they can, we could see USDCAD extend lower toward 1.3000/20.
A daily close below that would expose the next key support level around 1.2870 and perhaps 1.2680.
On the other hand, if we see USDCAD take out the September swing high at 1.3382, we could see the pair turn higher.
But as long as these lower highs and lower lows persist, I will stay relatively bearish USDCAD.
Note that Canada’s election on Monday could trigger higher than usual activity for the USDCAD.
NZDUSD buyers were on the move last week.
In Thursday’s video, I discussed how the latest descending channel combined with the confluence of support at 0.6200 looked bullish.
I also stated that I was anticipating a close above the channel top near 0.6340/50.
We got that breakout just before the weekend.
From here, I want to see the 0.6350/60 region hold as new support on a daily closing basis.
As long as it does, the NZDUSD could be in rally mode with key resistance coming in at 0.6430 followed by 0.6490.
Alternatively, a daily close back inside the descending channel would negate the bullish outlook.
On October 14, I wrote about the 81.80 support area on CADJPY.
I also stated that the pair could end 2019 with a 400-pip rally.
The idea is based on the October 11 break of the descending channel top and the larger channel that extends from the 2017 highs.
Furthermore, the 400-pip objective of what could be an inverse head and shoulders lines up perfectly with the 85.20/50 resistance area.
There is a minor support around 82.50 that could attract buyers this week.
However, if CADJPY closes below 82.50, we could see a deeper retracement into the 81.80 region.
A push higher from 82.50, on the other hand, would target the next key resistance at 83.20 with a close above that exposing 84.20.
Keep in mind that the objective here remains that 85.20/50 area.
It’s going to take a daily close back inside this channel, perhaps below 81.00, to reverse my bias for CADJPY.
Note that Canada’s election on Monday could trigger higher than usual activity for the CADJPY.