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In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD through November 8, 2019.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
We’ve been tracking the EURUSD’s bullish progress for weeks.
It all started when the pair bottomed in the 1.0900 region. I discussed this several times, including three reasons why sellers needed to be careful.
But it was the October 11 close above the descending channel top that really got our attention.
That breakout meant any retest of 1.0990 was likely to attract buyers.
What followed was a 190 pip rally above the 1.1070 support region.
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I discussed the potential for a bounce from 1.1070 in last Saturday’s Forex forecast video.
The EURUSD bounced there last week and even challenged the last swing high that topped out at 1.1180.
For the week ahead, I would expect to see buyers defend the area between 1.1070 and 1.1100.
As long as EURUSD stays above that region, the 1.1200 resistance area is exposed.
Similar to its euro counterpart, the GBPUSD spent last week consolidating.
That isn’t surprising, though, given the massive 800 pip rally in October, which materialized with the September 4 bullish breakout.
Every market needs time to consolidate after a move like that, and the GBPUSD is no exception.
I prefer to avoid indecisive price action like this, though.
The market lacks conviction, and there are better opportunities out there, in my opinion.
I will, however, keep an eye on what happens at 1.2770 support or 1.2980/90 resistance over the coming days.
A close below 1.2770 support would expose 1.2570.
On the other hand, a daily close above 1.2990 would open the door for a move to the 1.3160/70 resistance area.
I wrote about this USDJPY rising wedge on Thursday.
I had been relatively bullish the pair until that Wednesday bearish rejection candle from 109.00 hinted at a pullback.
Furthermore, the rising wedge below appears to suggest exhaustion from buyers.
If that’s the case, we could see USDJPY rotate lower in November.
That’s especially true considering last week’s bearish engulfing candle. Watch the video above for all the details.
However, keep in mind that sellers need to clear wedge support first.
At the moment, that support area comes in around 108.10.
A daily close below that would expose the next horizontal support at 106.80 with a break there targeting the pattern’s inception point at 105.00.
Key resistance for the week ahead comes in at 108.50/60 followed by 109.00.
The AUDUSD has a decision to make this week.
I wrote about the significance of the 0.6920 resistance area on Friday.
It’s the top of a descending channel that dates back to December of last year.
At the same time, the AUDUSD is holding above the 0.6860/80 support region, which previously served as resistance.
It’s going to take a daily close above the channel top around 0.6910/20 to expose the next key resistance level at 0.7030.
That’s the 50% retracement of the descending range as well as a key weekly level.
Alternatively, a daily close below 0.6860/80 would expose 0.6800.
Last but not least, we have the NZDUSD.
I’ve discussed the pair several times, including last Saturday’s forecast video, where I pointed out the confluence of support at 0.6350.
Notice how the New Zealand dollar bounced from 0.6350 last week and even tested the 0.6430 resistance level.
That 0.6430 region is significant for a couple of reasons.
First, it’s a key horizontal level based on recent price action.
Second, it’s the neckline of what could be an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
I made a video about this idea on Thursday.
But buyers still have more work to do if they intend to push the NZDUSD significantly higher.
It starts with a daily close above 0.6430. Notice how buyers failed to close the pair above this level before the weekend.
That means 0.6430 is still serving as resistance for the week ahead.
However, if we do see the pair close above 0.6430, it would expose 0.6490 and perhaps even 0.6580.
Alternatively, a close below 0.6350 would signal weakness, in my opinion.