Daily Price Action
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(Video) Weekly Forex Forecast for November 18 – 22, 2019

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In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD through November 22, 2019.

Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD remained predictable last week.

On November 5, I made a video about the significance of the support area between 1.0990 and 1.1020.

I also mentioned how a daily close below 1.1070 was likely to push the pair lower.

We got that sub 1.1070 close on the 6th which led to last week’s retest and subsequent bounce from 1.0990.

In fact, Thursday’s low was one pip below that price at 1.0989.

Thursday’s candle also confirmed a buy signal in the form of a bullish engulfing bar, which pushed the EURUSD even higher on Friday.

However, euro bulls face a key test in the week ahead at 1.1070.

It’s going to take a daily close above that to send the pair higher by exposing that 1.1170/80 resistance region.

Alternatively, a move back to 1.1020 would be a sign of weakness, in my opinion.

But it’s going to take a daily close below ascending channel support near 1.0970/80 to negate the short-term bullish outlook.

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EURUSD key support and resistance areas amid ascending channel

GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD continued its consolidation last week between 1.2770 support and 1.2980 resistance.

As I mentioned in my November 7 post, it’s going to take a daily close beyond this range for the GBPUSD to regain its momentum.

Expect the price action here to remain choppy until that time.

I do, however, favor a break higher given the short-term uptrend via the higher highs and higher lows.

A close above the 1.2980 resistance area would expose 1.3170.

Alternatively, a daily close below 1.2770 would suggest a turn lower toward the next key support at 1.2570.

GBPUSD horizontal support and resistance areas

USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY confirmed the rising wedge last week.

I wrote about the potential for a break lower on October 31. Thursday’s 108.39 close confirmed the bearish pattern.

However, Friday’s session came close to negating it.

The pre-weekend surge nearly closed the USDJPY back inside of this rising wedge, but buyers ultimately fell a bit short.

That doesn’t mean sellers are out of the woods, though.

It’s going to be essential to see USDJPY bears come out in force early this week.

If they don’t and the pair closes the day back above 108.96, we could see another push higher from the risk-sensitive currency pair.

But I do favor the short side as long as sellers can keep the pair below 108.80/90 on a daily closing basis.

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USDJPY rising wedge pattern

NZDUSD Forecast

I wrote about the NZDUSD on Friday.

More specifically, I mentioned how the bullish potential via the inverse head and shoulders look is still intact.

But it is going to take a daily close above 0.6430 to confirm the pattern.

Remember that I use “New York close” charts so that each 24-hour session opens and closes at 5 pm EST.

Go here to get access to the same charts I use. These are essential for trading price action.

Until that happens, expect sellers to defend the neckline as resistance.

A daily close above 0.6430 would not only confirm the pattern, but it would also open the door to 0.6490 and perhaps 0.6580.

Alternatively, a rotation lower would likely encounter support around 0.6320.

NZDUSD potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart

XAUUSD Forecast

I haven’t discussed XAUUSD (gold) for quite some time.

I wanted to give the market enough time to consolidate so that I could get a clearer view of what buyers and sellers are doing.

As of now, it seems gold has carved a falling wedge of sorts.

Furthermore, last week bounced from the horizontal 1440/50 support level that I’ve pointed out several times in recent months.

As long as buyers keep XAUUSD above the wedge bottom on a daily closing basis, the price action here will continue to look constructive.

That said, it is going to take a close above the 1500 area to turn gold higher.

Until then, expect this sideways consolidation to continue.

A break above 1500 would expose the year-to-date highs near 1550, while a close below 1440 would open the door to 1380.

Just remember what I said in the video above.

Given that the wedge bottom is a descending level, a close below it may be nothing more than a bear trap.

As always, time will tell which way XAUUSD wants to break.

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XAUUSD gold falling wedge on the daily time frame

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17 comments
Justin Bennett says

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Hari says

I was looking for your video analysis sir, much appreciated thank you !

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Victor Edet says

Hi, it’s always a delight watching your analysis. simple to understand and very enlightening. Thank you. Do you trade indices? would love to see your analysis on US30 and other indices.

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Emmanuel says

Thanks Mr Justin for your well constructive analysis

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said says

great analysis sir justin but please and please can you make a lesson on how you use 4h timeframe bcoz you said you are using lower timeframe also which is 4h. help us sir

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Popoola Samuel Olasunkanmi says

Great analysis,last week was profitable,wish this week will be better ,I will be a member before the end of this year.Thanks

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ADEJOBI ADEDEJI says

I really appreciate your gold analysis most especially bcos I trade it. I wish sellers could win in bringing usdjpy down.

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Emmanuel says

Thanks so much Mr Justin for your wonderful analysis

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FELIX GREAT says

Thank you so much Justin. God bless you for sharing your knowledge with us.

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Mustapha Aliyu says

Your analysis are the best sir

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Chukwudi says

Thanks for your insight always on point

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Eliezer Andino says

Thanks Justin, have a nice week trading. This info is great and easy to understand.

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Mike says

Great analysis Justin.

Re: usd.jpy, it seems the bounce up on Friday was due to positive sentiment on the us-china trade talks.

Will you keep an eye on that to help determine your bias for the pair? Since nothing substantive has changed over the weekend, bullish sentiment could continue at the open?

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Howard Hill says

Concise, clear and very helpful analyses. Thank you Justin.

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yusuf.m.a says

u r providing good ideas sir thanks

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Marcel Asiegbu says

Hello Justin, I’ve been a secret follower of your weekly analysis and I find it quite interesting, but I have this question which I think will help some of us who are still struggling to cut our teeth in forex trading. 1. I have never heard you talk of placing either a stop loss, a trailing stop or a take profit to your trading, is it that you don’t use these instruments? 2. What is the difference between the 5 bars per week chart and the others? I mean, can the difference hinder one from making profits in trading?

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ali says

Sir justin it’s good to have you back after one week of having trouble with Internet, hopefully I can continue doing business I waiting for new analysis for this coming week and thank you sir .

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