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In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD through November 15, 2019.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
The EURUSD reached the top of a key support area on Friday.
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I wrote about the significance of the region between 1.0990 and 1.1020 on Tuesday of last week.
You can see how ascending channel support is just below that.
This does not mean the EURUSD will bounce this week, though.
We have no way of knowing what the euro or any currency will do, and there’s no sign of strength here, at least not yet.
However, any bullish price action from this 1.0990 to 1.1020 area could signal a rotation higher, perhaps into 1.1070.
The longer-term bearish trend is intact for the EURUSD, but I am respecting the potential for a bounce while above 1.0990.
Alternatively, a close below the channel bottom near 1.0990 would likely send the euro even lower.
The GBPUSD consolidation continued last week above 1.2770.
I wrote about this sideways movement last week, noting that it’s going to take a break below 1.2770 or above 1.2990 to end the consolidation.
As long as GBPUSD is above 1.2770 on a daily closing basis, there’s a chance we could see another run at 1.2990.
But the lack of bullish price action is enough to keep me on the sideline.
That’s especially true when you consider how Friday’s session closed just above that 1.2770 level.
For now, it’s going to come down to what happens at 1.2770 this week.
Bullish price action such as a pin bar or engulfing candle would hint at another push higher while a close below it would expose 1.2570.
The USDJPY tested the top of a rising wedge last week.
You can see how this wedge resistance that extends from the June low has been so significant, especially over the last few weeks.
Wedge support also played a role in late October and early November.
However, the USDJPY is sending conflicting signals.
On the one hand, we have a rising wedge, which signals exhaustion from buyers.
And on the other, the inverse head and shoulders that I wrote about last month is technically still intact.
As such, it’s going to take a close above wedge resistance near 109.50 or below support at 108.70 to break the pair free.
A move higher would target 110.60 while a break lower would expose 106.80.
AUDUSD buyers tried to break the pair free last week but ultimately failed.
You can see how the pair hovered just below descending channel resistance at 0.6910/20 for several days.
The AUDUSD had also held above 0.6880 horizontal support on a daily closing basis.
But Friday’s close changed that.
With the pair now below 0.6880, I would expect sellers to defend that area as new resistance this week.
Key support comes in at 0.6810.
However, if we see the AUDUSD close back above 0.6880 this week, it would signal strength and would also re-expose the channel top near 0.6910.
The NZDUSD looked like it wanted to move higher following the formation of what appeared to be an inverse head and shoulders.
But buyers never did confirm the reversal pattern.
Notice how the pair never closed above the neckline at 0.6430.
Furthermore, the November 4 bearish engulfing day hinted at a deeper pullback from the NZDUSD, which is precisely what we got.
With the pair now below 0.6350, I would expect sellers to defend the area as new resistance this week.
A move lower would likely encounter buyers around the 0.6280 area.
Alternatively, a daily close back above 0.6350 would signal strength and would also open the door to the 0.6430 resistance area once more.