In this weekly Forex forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDCAD, and XAUUSD through December 6, 2019.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down for more commentary and annotated charts.
I’ve been discussing the 1.0990 region on the EURUSD for weeks now.
It’s a confluence of support based on the intersection of a key horizontal level and ascending channel support.
We saw the EURUSD dip below 1.0990 on Friday, but buyers stepped in just before the weekend.
That keeps the 1.0990 region intact as support for now.
As long as EURUSD is above 1.0990, I have to respect the potential for a move higher, perhaps into key resistance at 1.1070.
Alternatively, a daily close below the 1.0990 area would signal weakness and also expose the year-to-date lows around 1.0900.
The GBPUSD hasn’t done much lately.
Since closing above 1.2770 on October 16, the pair has consolidated between that level and 1.2980.
The lack of direction has made the GBPUSD rather unappealing.
However, a daily close above the 1.2980 region would signal an end to the consolidation. It would also expose the 1.3170 area.
On the other hand, a close below 1.2770 would open the door to 1.2570.
For now, though, the GBPUSD needs more time to give us a clearer sense of where the pair is likely to move from here.
We’ve been waiting for the NZDUSD to break out for a while now.
Buyers tried again last week but ultimately failed to close the pair above key resistance at 0.6430/40.
Until we see NZDUSD close the day above 0.6430/40, the area will continue to attract sellers.
Remember that I use New York close charts so that each daily candle opens and closes at 5 pm EST, giving me five equal 24-hour sessions each week.
A daily close above 0.6430/40 would pave the way to the 0.6490 resistance level.
Alternatively, a move lower this week or next may not find much support until the 0.6320 region.
I discussed AUDCAD in last week’s Forex forecast.
The idea was to watch for either a close above wedge resistance or below wedge support.
You can see how AUDCAD closed below that support level last Thursday.
Sellers also defended the new resistance level on Friday.
As I mentioned last week, a break lower would expose the August lows just above the 0.8900 handle.
That’s the idea as long as AUDCAD remains below former wedge support on a daily closing basis.
Like many other markets, XAUUSD (gold) hasn’t done much lately.
However, no consolidation lasts forever, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen here since August.
I also like the way XAUUSD has held its ground relatively well, especially considering how aggressive the rally was between June and August.
But it’s still going to take a close above the wedge top near 1490 to put an end to the consolidation.
Until that happens, expect XAUUSD to remain indecisive.
Key support for the week ahead comes in at 1450 or just below it.