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Weekly Forex Forecast (February 19 – 23, 2018)

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Friday’s bearish candlestick could spell trouble for EURUSD bulls this week.

Following a 350 pip rally that punched through 1.2325 on Tuesday, the single currency hit a wall of sellers at 1.2520/40. It’s an area that has capped EURUSD advances since January 25.

A rotation higher this week into 1.2470/5 could present an opportunity to get short. However, keep in mind that the broader uptrend is intact, so any selling up here is against the bullish momentum.

If you are interested in shorting the pair, one way to combat the bullish momentum is to start small. So instead of entering with your full position size, try going in with half or one-fourth of your standard size and then scale in as the market moves in your favor.

Key support for the week comes in at 1.2325. A daily close (using New York close charts) below 1.2325 would expose 1.2160 followed by 1.2080.

I’m still keeping an eye on the trend line that extends from the April 2017 low. Levels such as this tend to serve as magnets, especially when markets become overextended as the EURUSD has in recent weeks.

That trend line could become a near-term target for sellers and perhaps the starting point for the next leg higher should we get a bullish signal following a rotation lower.

EURUSD key levels on the daily chart

The GBPUSD produced two false breaks last week. The first occurred at 1.3850 with the February 9 and 12 sessions closing below the level only to close back above it on the 13th.

Then came Thursday’s close above 1.4070, a level I mentioned in the February 4 commentary and again on the 8th. Friday’s 1.4027 close put the pair back below the level to end the week.

It’s rare to see two false breaks in one week, but given the recent increase in volatility, it isn’t surprising.

Now that the pound is back below the 1.4070 handle, I would expect to see an influx of selling pressure on a retest of the area this week.

Another indication of near-term weakness is the descending channel that appears to be forming. If the 1.4070 area holds as new resistance, we could see a move back toward 1.3850 with a break there exposing the 1.3600 support area.

Just like the Euro, I’m still bullish on the GBPUSD. The broader uptrend is intact, and this channel (if it becomes one) could signal a buying opportunity in the coming weeks.

However, recent price action suggests a cooling off period for both the EURUSD and GBPUSD which could expose lower levels before the next leg higher begins.

GBPUSD descending channel

The USDJPY lost 260 pips last week. Not only did the pair clear the 2017 low at 107.30, but it also took out trend line support that extends from the September 2012 low. I mentioned this possibility in the February 13 commentary.

That was an incredibly significant breakdown. A risk-sensitive pair like the USDJPY breaking below a five and a half year support level signals the end of an era in my opinion.

It’s no coincidence that pairs like the EURJPY and GBPJPY have also broken below key handles in recent weeks.

As long as the USDJPY remains below the 107.30/80 resistance area on a daily closing basis, I’ll stay bearish here. The first key support sellers have to deal with comes in at 105.50, which is one of the levels I pointed out on Tuesday and also triggered Friday’s bounce.

A daily close below 105.50 would expose 103.70 followed by 101.75. As for the longer-term outlook, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pair trading at 100.00 at some point over the coming weeks and months.

USDJPY break below trend line support

On January 23 I discussed how I believed the EURJPY to be topping out near 136.60. Eight trading days later, the pair carved a high of 137.50, a level that’s nearly 600 pips above Friday’s close.

Then on February 8, the Euro cross fell below rising wedge support at 134.00. Less than 24 hours after that commentary we got our retest of the 134.00 handle as new resistance.

If that wasn’t enough to convince you that the pair is technically sound, Wednesday’s session bounced from the 131.40 area. It’s arguably the most well-defined level within view and one that I’ve had on my chart for several months.

The bid that developed just above 131.40 was so strong that it turned the EURJPY positive during Wednesday’s session even after a 180 pip intraday plunge.

However, despite the late-session push, buyers have so far failed to extend the price above Wednesday’s high at 133.38.

Last Thursday I pointed out how weak the USDJPY has been of late. That weakness suggests yen strength, which has spilled over into the yen crosses such as the EURJPY.

As long as the USDJPY remains below the 108.00 area (see chart above), the EURJPY and other yen crosses will continue to struggle.

If the EURJPY rotates higher this week, I would expect to see an influx of selling pressure near 134.50. Alternatively, a daily close (New York 5 pm EST) below 131.40 would expose 128.30 followed by 125.70.

EURJPY break below rising wedge support

I first mentioned a possible change in direction in the EURNZD on February 7. The swing low in January was the first lower low in twelve months which was a sign that buyers were tiring.

Following the January 11 swing low, the pair began forming an ascending channel. This gave us a pattern we could use to initiate a short position, but not until sellers had cleared channel support.

That break came just before the U.S. session on Friday. The 4-hour close at 1.6864 was my trigger to get short. I even told Daily Price Action members of my intention before Friday’s breakdown.

As shown in the February 7 commentary, the final target here is the September 2017 low at 1.6140. I came to this conclusion based on the 960 pip range between December 1 and January 11. A 960 pip move lower from the February 5 high puts the pair at 1.6140.

For those who missed Friday’s entry, a rotation higher this week into new resistance at 1.6835 could offer a selling opportunity. Key support comes in at 1.6630 followed by 1.6360 and 1.6140.

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EURNZD 4-hour channel breakdown

Leave a Comment:

32 comments
Saif says

as usual food for trader.

Reply
Fabrizio says

Hi Justin from Fabrizio. Eur-nzd is not overextended to downside? Is there risk of Mean reversion? Yen pairs correlation that you often speak is valid also for other currency? (Eur. Gbp and so on). Thank you

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    Justin Bennett says

    That question is incomplete without specifying a time frame. We could see an intraday bounce, but I mentioned that above.

    Not necessarily, no.

    Reply
      Udoye Anthony says

      Nice one

      Reply
Sam says

Hi Justin (Mr Spot On)

Thanks!

For the past three weeks, the single currency has failed for the 3rd time to close above 1.2535.

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Thomas says

Your analysis of the market is really on point and shows insights. Thanks

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Alex Rodriguez says

Thank you Mr.Justin

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Pierre Mifsud says

With the USDJPY pair I see an imminent bullish divergence in the 2 hour RSI (14)

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Bolaji Akinwale says

Hi Justin following the link you gave me for the life membership after completing the form with my visa card pls what the next thing to do

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’ll receive an email invitation. Check your spam folder if you don’t see it and make sure you use your primary email address at checkout.

    Reply
TIJANI says

FANTASTIC.

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Brighton says

Thank you Mr Justin your analysis is very helpful for us newbies

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arsalan says

Thank you Very Much Sir for your Hard-Work…….

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Sumantra Kumar Halder says

Thanks for your helping

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Austin says

Hi Justin, you’re the best.
Thanks for your selfless service.

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MICHELE says

Thanks , and very good .

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Lennon says

Dear Justin
thank you for you hard work of sending us your analysis. I now know every week what to watch for because I informed. Thank you.

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Mudassar Mahmood says

Great analysis mate I have the same

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Samuel Nwofoke says

Thank you very much for your generosity,You have been a big boost to our generation of present traders. May God continue to enrich you with abundance of His wealth.Thanks a lots for the week analysis.

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MAHLUBI says

THANK YOU FOR THE SETUPS .HOW DO ONE SUBSCIBE TOUR WHATSAPP ?

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Victor says

Thanks man this information is extremely important. You guys are spot on and good at your profession keep up a good work

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waqas says

great price action master BENNETT I SALUTE YOU

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Ramnath tiwari says

Respeted sir.
I want to trade it.but i live in Nepal .here isnt any broker or platform. how can i trade ?

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Emuobo says

Nice trading ideas.

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BENEDICT EZIRIM says

AM very new to this trading I have been trying to find my way around for over three months now please i need guidlines

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IRENE says

As a new trader i find this very helpful. Thank you.

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kareem says

thank u sir

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Ken says

Thanks so much

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Joshua Ogola says

Hi Justin, from this weeks analysis i see an opportunity to go long on EURJPY and short EURNZD @1.6835. From the correlation of currency pairs on H4 they are strongly correlated but on the daily they are not. Is it advisable to go long on EURJPY and short on EURNZD at the same time with the correlation that’s seen?

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Jeranomo says

This is the best information i had received that is so easy to understand, as a novice trader this is straight on point. Thank you Mr. Bennett I am currently in one trade USDJPY and i am monitoring the others very carefully but i cant stop and check the setups you give i really appreciate your hard work.

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umair says

what about eurnzd today can we take sell entry

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Kenny says

Wondering where you have your stop for EN, looks like it might be reversing….I got in last Fri @ 1.6845…..

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