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EURUSD: Tentatively Bearish Below 1.1620

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

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The EURUSD has been relatively idle so far this week. As I type this, the single currency is hovering just 20 pips above last week’s close.

However, despite the lack of movement, the pair is holding below a key level I’ve pointed out a couple of times recently.

On August 2nd, EURUSD sellers cleared wedge support that extends from the June 21st low. I mentioned the probable breakdown just hours before the session closed below support at 1.1605.

Then on Friday, buyers decided to test the former support level as new resistance. After carving a session high of 1.1610, sellers closed the EURUSD lower at 1.1566 ahead of the weekend.

Fast forward to the last 24 hours, and you can see where the pair is once again challenging previous support, this time at 1.1620. Yesterday’s session held below the level and buyers are struggling so far today.

Now, on the one hand, these retests of wedge support turned resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities. And as long as the EURUSD remains below this 1.1620 area on a daily closing basis (New York 5 pm EST), the pair is vulnerable in my opinion.

That said, it’s important to put some context around last week’s breakdown. While Thursday’s close was the catalyst for some additional selling pressure, the ten-week 320 pip range between 1.1510 support and 1.1830 resistance is still intact.

With that in mind, this week’s sideways movement isn’t surprising in the least. I am still tentatively bearish here, but I won’t be willing to step up that bias until sellers can clear range support at 1.1510.

If they do, the 340 pip height of the wedge suggests the Euro may not encounter much demand until the 1.1300 handle. Alternatively, a daily close back inside this wedge pattern would delay that outlook and re-expose wedge resistance near 1.1700.

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EURUSD daily wedge pattern

Leave a Comment:

26 comments
Kamran Altaf says

Wonderful

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Sasa says

Thx 🙂

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Emuobo Agbahovbe says

Actually shorted on retest of 1.1620. So far so good.

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    OMOISI OGHENEKOWHO says

    GOOD ENTRY. A WAITING FOR A RETEST OF 1.1650 BA I GO SHORT

    Reply
Syed Hassan says

Thank you sir

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Nelson says

Right in time Mr Justin! Thanks always..now i know i have to be on the look-out for range between 1.1830 and 1.1511

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    Justin Bennett says

    Anytime, Nelson.

    Reply
mostafi says

Many thanks to find a corrct analysis.

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    Justin Bennett says

    My pleasure.

    Reply
      Zakhriddin says

      Hi Justin.I haven’t found an article on your site about applying measured objective method to trendlines.Does this method exist for this pattern or not ?

      Reply
        Justin Bennett says

        See the link below. The last pattern I discuss is the wedge.

        http://bit.ly/2nmvwdM

        Reply
Chayi Monday Abba says

Mr Justin, you are such a nice Man.God Bless you sir keep the Good work you’ve started by putting the newbie on the right track.Thanks

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome. Happy to help.

    Reply
Eqtrend says

Hi Justin, got a question for you, received your EurUsd commentary, @ 10.58pm (ny time) by than Eur was already below 1.1570. Your email commentary states “As I type this, the single currency is hovering just 20 pips above last week’s close”. am I missing something or

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    Justin Bennett says

    Well, there’s a delay of about 30 minutes between me typing the post and you viewing it. I have to annotate the chart, proofread the content, send an email, post to Facebook, etc. It all takes time.

    I generally take a snapshot of the chart around the time I’m typing, so whatever you see in the chart is how it looked while I was writing the post.

    I mentioned this breakout last week and even pointed out 1.1620 as resistance on Sunday, so readers shouldn’t have been surprised by yesterday’s selloff.

    Here’s the commentary from Sunday:

    https://dailypriceaction.com/weekly-forex-forecast/august-6-10-2018

    Reply
      Eqtrend says

      Thanks, vm for your quick response Justin. I have recently subscribed to your list ( yesterday to be precise) and did not realize this was an extension of early commentary. I will def keep look out for your email update

      thx
      Eqtrend

      Reply
Zaaba says

Thanks brother. This pair was fantastic move on this thursday. Your marking and comment is really help. Thanks once again….

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Bobby says

Thanks Justin.. U saved my account.. when my capital is enough, I will pay u back.. mark my words pls.. lol

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    Justin Bennett says

    Hi Bobby, glad to hear that.

    Reply
nadzuah says

very nice

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Mandi says

Hi Justin: how can I avoid to take the profits too early and then watch it continues to go higher.

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Collins Unuigboje says

Am just wondering how come I never saw this setup and it fell roughly 200 pips accordingly. I have to give it to you Justin. Really learning here. Great job

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Meraj says

Thanks you are very supportive

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diy says

THANKS

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