Is EURUSD signaling a return to 1.1450 this September? This week’s price action is starting to give us clues.
Watch today’s EURUSD and DXY video for the key levels, technical triggers, and potential targets this month.
EURUSD failed to hold above the breakout level at 1.1716 on Monday. We’ve discussed this level several times in recent videos as one to watch. Monday’s U.S. holiday made trading difficult, given the thin volume and lack of institutional involvement.
However, Monday’s failed break above the 1.1716 level signals weakness from the euro.
At the same time, EURUSD is bouncing from its February 2025 trendline support on Tuesday. The pair also has a buy-side imbalance at 1.1685. That could trigger some further relief going into Wednesday’s session. For now, EURUSD remains range-bound between its 2025 trendline support and its July 2025 trendline resistance.
As for the DXY, dollar bulls are reclaiming the July trendline that broke down on Monday. However, like the euro, the dollar faces a significant test at 98.60.
A daily close back above 97.90 from the DXY on Tuesday confirms a bullish reclaim. But dollar bulls have to contend with 98.60 resistance to open the door to the 99.35 level.
Turning back to EURUSD, a break below the 1.1620 support level would open up the 1.1564 poor low and potentially the 1.1520 support level.
Alternatively, a sustained break above the 1.1720 resistance level would open the door to the 1.1800 resistance area. Remember that there is a poor high at 1.1810 that could become a factor if we get a bullish breakout.
Given Monday’s failure to hold the bullish breakout, it does appear that the euro may be headed lower in early September. But as noted above, the 1.1685 single print could serve as resistance before the euro is ready to break down.
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