EURUSD: Expect Weakness Below 1.1900

by Justin Bennett  · 

August 19, 2020

by Justin Bennett  · 

August 19, 2020

by Justin Bennett  · 

August 19, 2020


The EURUSD is pulling back on Wednesday after closing above 1.1900 on Tuesday.

Not only that, but the pair just closed the day below 1.1900.

If you saw the last two weekly forecasts, you know that the 1.1900 area was the top of a range that started on July 31st.

Wednesday’s failure to hold above it after Tuesday’s rally hints at weakness.

For that reason, I just told DPA members that I’ve exited my EURUSD long position for more than a 500 pip profit.

I announced my entry in the member’s area on July 7th and added more in the second week of August.

There are multiple signs that point to some renewed US dollar strength.

The EURUSD closed below 1.1900, GBPUSD back below 1.3160, and the AUDUSD even carved a bearish engulfing day.

This doesn’t mean the EURUSD uptrend is over, but it does suggest that a deeper pullback may be needed.

As for key levels to keep an eye on, it’s all about 1.1700 and 1.1600.

The former has served as range support since July 28th.

As for the 1.1600 region, it’s the top of a multi-year wedge pattern that I’ve discussed for months.

Only a close below 1.1600 would cast doubt over the uptrend.

That said, the EURUSD is vulnerable while below 1.1900 on a daily closing basis.

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EURUSD daily chart
EURUSD daily time frame


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22  Comments

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  1. Hi Justin –

    I have serious difficulty on some of the recommendation like this one on EUR/USED. I understand we all see false breaks some time, but if it is a swing trade like yours starting Jul 15th, you see 500 pips. But for day traders like me who saw in your weekly forecast that if EUR/USD closed above 1.1900 that will expose 1.2090 region, such a pronouncement is very hard to trade and there are no pips to be made. Same thing with USD/JPY some weeks ago. You were very sure about 2000 pips in the months to come and it is going the other way. Not a criticism, just an observation.

    1. At the end of the day, no one can still predict the market. I think these are just opinions or views from a writer. They could be right on what’s to come, or they could be wrong. For me these type of information are useful because it makes me aware and cautious before putting an order. I appreciate all writers and professional traders out there who are sharing their thoughts. Again, even the most professional trader can still lose a lot. This is Forex, it’s unpredictable, sometimes technicals and fundamentals are not making sense, sometimes market movers are controlling the flow of the market, but again these are just my opinion based on experience. Forex is like the universe, it’s so big and full of uncertainties.

      1. I agree with you Jan about the market. That’s why I said that it’s not a criticism of Justin, but more of an observation of the overall situation.

        1. And not to forget the market manipulators, not just in forex. Some may hail Warren Buffet for his trading prowess, but he moves the market by the announcements of he is buying this stock or that stock in millions. The stock price already moved when he bought and the ordinary investor is too late to get in. Those who do lose their money. Too much information and misinformation is flooding the internet.

    2. The swing trade started on July 7th, not the 15th. I entered there because EURUSD was breaking out of the bull flag pattern that I talked about at length on this blog, YouTube, the member’s area, etc.

      You have to be flexible as a trader. If not, you’ll get run over. People love to criticize me for changing my mind on things, yet that ability to adapt to an unfolding situation is what allows me to protect my capital and make money over time.

      1. Justin –

        Thank you for responding. Like I said, it was not meant to be a criticism , but more of an observation. You seem to like all the ‘thank you’s’ and not any of the questioning of the wrong trades like the yen asserting thousands of pips in the coming months. I don’t even know if you acknowledge any of your wrong forecasts in your blogs.

        1. If a market is being difficult, I move on. There’s no point in talking about a market that becomes choppy or moves in a way that invalidates an idea. Accept it and move on.

          That said, I share exactly what I’m doing with DPA members. If you want that level of access, feel free to join us. Otherwise, enjoy the free content.

          And if you aren’t enjoying the content or finding it useful, you always have the option to go elsewhere. 🙂

      2. Dear Justin,
        I think there is need for you to give lessons concerning the nature of financial market(especially Fx market).Let people know that financial market is not a static model, as more information are coming in or changing(market news,sentiments,trader’s psychology etc) there is need for every analysts to re-assess his/her stand.In fact every experienced traders/analysts knows that markets are very very dynamic and so need for you to re-assess your analysis time to time and changed your bias when needed.This is why Elliott Wave professionals and other technical analysts change their Wave counts or their analysis.
        Sir, kindly keep it up some of us understand why you need to re-assess and change your bias.Thanks

  2. Hey Justin

    Where exactly did you closed your position on euro dollar?You made 500 pips but you added more you say?Where those also in profit?
    I want to become a member in think because I have to much struggling on forex with real money.Do you now short it like hell?
    Best regards
    Davy

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