The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March came in hotter than forecast today, sending the EURUSD crashing below support.
But is it enough to confirm a short opportunity?
Find out in today’s video, plus get the latest on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yPbJh6CuXI[/embedyt]The EURUSD is down nearly 1% today on hotter-than-forecast US CPI numbers, a theme we’ve seen for months.
But is this more of the same sideways action for the euro, or will we finally get some follow-through in 2024?
That’s the big question, and I think a lot of that hinges on the Euro Index (EXY) breakdown that I’ve discussed before.
As mentioned in Sunday’s forecast video, I was looking for EXY to sweep last week’s high before another run at the lows.
That’s precisely what we saw this week.
I was also looking for EURUSD to partially sweep Friday’s lower wick early this week, and then take out shorts toward 1.0865.
The EURUSD did exactly that and is now trading below the 1.0800 key level.
But whether today’s price action is meaningful comes down to the daily close, and especially where Friday closes relative to 1.0800.
EURUSD hasn’t yet closed a week below its October trend line, so a weekly close below could be meaningful later this month.
Of course, a recovery above 1.0800 on the daily and weekly time frames would suggest more ranging for the euro.
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