Daily Price Action

EURUSD Moves to Test Resistance Above 1.1030


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The EURUSD is bouncing today after carving a bullish pin bar on Tuesday.

But the question is, how far can buyers take the single currency?

Is this just a relief rally or something more?

While nobody knows the answer to either question, we can use the recent price action to find clues.

First, the downtrend that has been in place since February of last year forces me to be more interested in selling than buying.

Second, until the EURUSD breaks free from the descending channel below, buyers will likely run into considerable selling pressure.

And third, the pair is still below the 1.1030/60 region.

I pointed out this area in Sunday’s forecast as one to watch this week.

You can see how 1.1030 is very near the August 1 low at 1.1026. And 1.1060 includes several lows from the second half of August.

As such, I do expect sellers to defend that 1.1030/60 area.

However, nothing in this game is certain.

No rule says the EURUSD can’t break through 1.1030/60 and even take out channel resistance near 1.1100.

That’s important to keep in mind regardless of the currency pair you’re trading as it will help you keep your position sizes under control.

I still like the idea of selling EURUSD on a retest of 1.1030/60, but I will want to see a rejection first.

A bearish pin bar or rejection candle will do.

That would expose the confluence of support at 1.0860.

On the other hand, if EURUSD begins to pressure the 1.1030/60 area without backing down, it would be a sign of an imminent (upward) breakout.

In which case, I will stand aside to see what happens at 1.1100.

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Justin Bennett says

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Femi Orunmole says

Good analysis all the time thanks so much.

    Justin Bennett says

    Thanks for following along.

Eder says

How does the political, geopolitical and macroeconomic situation affect the pair?

Great work. Thank you !

IDOGEI emmanuel says

I am with u Justin. My mentor

    Justin Bennett says

    I appreciate the support.

Japheth Nwadiogor says

πŸ‘ kudos to you Justin. I always concur with your analysis. But I want to add that it will probably take the pair the whole of this week to test that 1.1060 resistance level. Then supply continues next week.

    Justin Bennett says

    I’m not so sure we will even see that resistance area hold. It’s going to come down to the type of price action I see below 1.1060 this week or next.

Leon Kawana says

It seems bears are on their way up to test the R zone @1.0650. It seems that the Dollar is fixing up for tomorrow’s. ……Non-Farm Employment Change which might make the dollar take over EurπŸ“‰πŸ“Š

Howard Hill says

Concise & clear summary. Thank you Justin

    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

Philip says

A bearish pin bar has formed on Thursday. And it looks nice

    Justin Bennett says

    It looks like a trap to me.

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