Is the EURUSD carving out a 2025 top?
Watch today’s video for the details, including the macro picture, key levels to watch, a new setup forming, and the latest on the DXY.
We’re finally seeing some movement from the forex market this week with EURUSD breaking down and the DXY showing fresh strength.
Let’s start with the euro.
The pair has spent months chopping inside a wide range, but that’s starting to change. Thursday’s breakdown below 1.1580 was a key development. If today’s session closes below that level, it flips to new resistance.
You can see the pattern here — a clean break from that February trend line, followed by a lower high and now a confirmed move lower. The next downside areas I’m watching are 1.1530 and then 1.1440. Those line up with unfinished auctions and single prints on the lower time frames.
If EURUSD retests 1.1580 and fails to reclaim it, that could set up another leg lower. But if we get a close back above 1.1580, that would turn into a failed breakdown and flip the bias back to short-term bullish.
Either way, this looks like a new range forming between roughly 1.1440 support and 1.1580 resistance.
Now to the DXY.
The dollar index continues to mirror the opposite side of that move. It’s breaking out from a descending channel that’s been in play for months, with a potential breakaway gap forming from earlier this week.
As long as DXY holds above 99.30, it stays constructive. There’s resistance ahead at 99.90 to 100.00, which lines up with a few prior highs and psychological round-number resistance.
If we do see a short-term pullback, I’ll be watching 99.30 as a potential retest area for support.
So for now, the setup is clear. EURUSD looks weak while DXY continues to firm up. I’m treating rallies in the euro as potential selling opportunities until the market proves otherwise.
