EURUSD is trading below a key resistance area, and sellers may have their eyes on 1.1440.
I explain why in today’s video. I also discuss the EURUSD and DXY scenarios to watch in early November trade.
Is EURUSD headed for 1.1440, or will we get an early month bounce first? That’s the big question right now.
The pair has been moving sideways for months, but we’ve finally seen a bit more movement lately. On the 4-hour chart, there’s a clear descending channel, and the bottom of that channel lines up with the imbalance at 1.1440.
That 1.1440 level is important. It’s a single print from the reclaim, and markets often come back to fill those thinly traded areas.
For now, the November open at 1.1528 is the key pivot. If buyers can reclaim that level, we could see a move into 1.1550.
That area around 1.1550 lines up with recent 4-hour lows and closes, so it’s going to act as resistance.
If we get a clean break and hold above 1.1550, the next area to watch is 1.1580 to 1.1610. That’s the same region as the September low and a fair value gap on the higher time frames.
If EURUSD fails to reclaim 1.1528, then 1.1440 remains the downside target.
Big picture, this is still a downtrend, and there’s no reason to be a buyer while we’re below 1.1550.
Now looking at the DXY, the dollar has formed what looks like a double bottom on the higher time frames.
I’m watching 100.25 as resistance and an unfinished auction. The market already took out the 99.88 single print, so we could see a move into 100.25 before any pullback.
If the dollar loses the November open and drops below recent lows, then 99.30 becomes the next target. That’s another area with single prints from the breakout that never retested.
So for now, EURUSD below 1.1528 keeps pressure on 1.1440. Reclaim 1.1528, and we could see a short-term bounce into 1.1550 before sellers step back in.
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