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On November 5, I published a video about the potential for a move into 1.1000 from the EURUSD.
The way the pair was leaning on 1.1070 support suggested further weakness.
The newly constructed ascending channel hinted at the same.
You can see how the EURUSD held below the 1.1070 level on the 6th and 7th before selling off.
Note too how 1.1020 served as resistance on Wednesday following Tuesday’s close below it.
That 1.1020 level is the top of the support area I mentioned last week.
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But the euro isn’t showing any signs of turning positive, at least not yet.
We could still see a move into 1.0990, perhaps even just below it to ascending channel support before we see any significant demand.
That doesn’t mean the EURUSD will turn higher, though.
The longer-term downtrend against the greenback is very much intact, so that October rally may be all we see from bulls.
But as long as the pair is above channel support near 1.0970 on a daily closing basis, I have to respect the potential for another rally.
Note: The “daily closing basis” refers to the 5 pm EST close when using New York close charts. These charts are essential for trading price action.
Get instant access to the same New York close charts Justin uses.
I also think that a turn higher from channel support is necessary if the pair intends to carve a higher low following the October relief rally.
A bullish move from that 1.0970/90 support area could target the 2018 descending channel top above 1.1200.
So far, though, there’s no price action to indicate the selling is over.
Alternatively, a daily close below channel support at 1.0970 would negate the bullish scenario.
It would also re-expose the year-to-date lows below 1.0900.
Just remember that 1.1020 and 1.1070 will attract sellers if EURUSD does turn higher over the coming sessions.