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EURUSD Bulls Have More Work to Do

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EURUSD bulls are trying to break free, but aren’t quite there, yet.

From a technical perspective, the euro has been a mess. There’s no other way to say it.

Ever since the pair dropped below the 1.1450 area on October 24th, we’ve seen nothing but false breaks and sideways movement.

There’s no doubt the broader trend is bearish. It has been since the April 20th breakdown I pointed out on this website.

But the mid-November bounce from 1.1215 turned me neutral.

It wasn’t just the bounce though. It was how it unfolded.

Between November 7th and 12th, EURUSD lost 280 pips. However, the next five trading days erased all but 35 pips of that 280 pip selloff.

That type of aggressive buying isn’t something you want to ignore.

Yet despite the November rally, there hasn’t been a favorable buying opportunity here in my opinion.

Any long entry below 1.1450 is one in a sideways market. That leaves you holding your breath in hopes that buyers get the job done.

That isn’t a position you should put yourself in, quite literally.

The solution is to wait for EURUSD to clear the current range. Buyers are close to doing just that today, but they aren’t there yet.

A daily close above the trend line from the November 7th high would be a start. But I think it’s going to take a close above 1.1450 to seal the deal for euro bulls.

The “daily close” refers to 5 pm EST. If you aren’t using charts with this closing time, you’re exposing yourself to false breaks.

Click here to get instant access to the same New York close charts I use.

That would be something that hasn’t occurred since October 23rd. It would also expose resistance at 1.1530 followed by 1.1620.

If we look at the price action since August, there’s a very good chance EURUSD could target the 1.1700 area if it can clear 1.1450 resistance.

Until then, this is a sideways market and one I won’t touch.

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EURUSD resistance area

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13 comments
ghulam says

i m in this business from 2003 , though not with good technological knowledge then but usually it happens at the end of yr market is in sell , and suddenly turns to buy even to 1500 points in my history with me it usually happened and i got huge loss i m careful this end of yr

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    Pierre Mifsud says

    In this business you need to stand for yourself, convince yourself and if you cannot see it, opt out and not move like the rest of the herd. No one can predict the market with precision…..

    Reply
      Pierre Mifsud says

      I can only see the EURO down to the 1.09 handle….even with a weak dollar reaching the 1.15 was an impossibility…With dollar strength index to 99.13, EURO will plummet further

      Reply
Daks says

Keeping steady eyes on it

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Mark says

Hi sir….sir i trully admire u….U TRULLY A FOREX GOD.TQ ALOT

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Olufemi Joseph Akinola says

You excellently dissect the market. I really admire your analysis

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Mihails Grigorjevs says

Big thanks Justin,wish you Mary Cristmas

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Sulaiman says

I’m always enjoying your analyze but i using enter market 15 minute time frame and your analysis is base on daily close sir I need more clarification

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Chi Wai Paul Lam says

nice … but the movement is just after raise hike by the fed. And stock market choked after misreading of fed. Everybody is looking for gold and yen as save heaven …. I put 1.1450 was a false break and we will see next week after stock market calm down and interest rates differntial will take place again, all transaction will reverse. i.e. dont see euro/usd can reach even 1.153 … good luck.

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Uzoma Nnamdi says

As I type this Sir EURUSD is 30pips above 1.1450, just waiting for a daily close in just about 3hrs. Sir should we wait for a retest of 1.1430/50 for entry. Thanks and God bless you with more knowledge. Thanks for usdjpy just falling freely

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king says

EU has broken above the trendline on daily chart.

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Kevin Wagner says

That stubborn 38 Fib. I also see a trend line that is going to intersect the 1450 in about 5 or 6 bars. Possible turning point.

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semele says

hi Mr Justin… i am so touched about the way you analyse the market and so willing to subscribe so that i learn more from you.

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