EURUSD Bulls Fall Down on the Job

by Justin Bennett  · 

November 7, 2018

by Justin Bennett  · 

November 7, 2018

by Justin Bennett  · 

November 7, 2018

Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.

Yesterday we looked at how EURUSD was once again retesting the 1.1430 resistance area. This came on the back of a November 2nd bearish rejection candle from the area.

However, given the aggressiveness of the bounce from 1.1300 support and the ongoing U.S. midterm elections, attempting to short EURUSD was a risky endeavor. At least that’s the stance I took when I wrote yesterday’s post.

The key takeaway from yesterday’s commentary was just how significant 1.1430 was and still is for EURUSD. For instance, notice how after reaching a session high of 1.1500 yesterday, buyers failed to close the single currency above 1.1430.

Remember that I use New York close charts. So unless you’re using a 5 pm EST daily close, you aren’t going to get the same signals as me. You can get access to the same charts I use by clicking here.

So where does yesterday’s close leave EURUSD?

In my opinion, it leaves buyers in a precarious spot. The fact that bulls extended yesterday’s session all the way to 1.500 yet failed to close the pair above 1.1430 is telling.

I do want to be clear though. Yesterday’s candle is not a pin bar. It is, however, a bearish rejection candle despite a rather long lower wick.

I’m going to leave the rest to your discretion. Given the length of the lower wick from November 7th, I’m not willing to call this an all out sell signal. But as I just mentioned, the way buyers fell down on the job yesterday could signal a turn lower.

This brings us full circle to something I wrote yesterday. As long as 1.1430 remains resistance on a daily closing basis (New York 5 pm EST), the EURUSD is vulnerable and 1.1300 remains exposed.

A daily close below 1.1300 would open the door to the 1.1130 area. Alternatively, a close above 1.1430 would pave the way to the next key resistance at 1.1530.

Last but not least, remember that you have the ability to modify your position size. Perhaps a less than ideal setup requires a smaller bet or none at all. Just some food for thought.

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  1. Great analysis Sir, please I use FXTM and FBS broker and I reside in Nigeria. You talked about using charts that close daily by 5pm EST. I’m asking if my brokers do and how can I find out

  2. EURUSD looks to be in a falling wedge with a decent TL break on the 4hr chart. The “PB” potentially a retrace back to the TL followed by a push higher?.

  3. Thanks for the analysis Justin. 👏
    Looking at the numbers from the top @ 1.1815 price dropped 383 pips. The 1st correction from 1.1432 was 224. 2nd leg down was 354, 2nd correction 198. Seems pretty consistent. 🤔 If this continues and 1.15 is indeed the top of this correction that targets 1.1150 based purely on how price has gone in previous legs.

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