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EURUSD: Bearish Below 1.1700

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.

Yesterday’s FOMC didn’t have much of an impact on the market, at least not on the EURUSD. You could argue the outcome was priced in for the most part.

However, market reactions aren’t always on time. Sometimes it takes a day or two before participants are ready to commit themselves one way or the other.

Markets are also never static. The never-ending flow of news and positions means things can change fast. It’s why I’m always preaching the importance of staying as neutral as possible. At any given time the market can give you a massive clue about its likely future direction.

Yesterday I mentioned that buyers’ resolve would be tested at 1.1700. The area was either going to trigger a bounce higher to 1.1830 or fail and expose 1.1530.

So far today, 1.1700 is failing. Sellers have cleared the area on a 4-hour closing basis. If you look at the 4-hour chart, you’ll even see where 1.1695 – 1.1700 was retested as new resistance just a few hours ago.

It’s an interesting development for sure. What’s just as appealing from a bearish perspective is that the market is about 50 pips away from carving a bearish engulfing week. We’ll have to wait and see how Friday plays out.

You may recall from yesterday’s commentary that a close below 1.1700 would re-expose the 1.1530 support handle. As long as sellers can force a sub-1.1700 daily close (using a New York close chart), the 1.1530 area appears to be the next stop.

If EURUSD loses 1.1700 on a daily closing basis, it would also negate the idea of an inverse head and shoulders. Just keep in mind that a lot can happen between now and 5 pm EST, so stay diligent.

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EURUSD key levels

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12 comments
Sandile Pro mngomezulu says

Great again Justin watching your analysis is heartwarming

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Cheers. Always glad to help.

    Reply
Zacks says

May the good Lord bless you sir. Thank you

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Obiora says

Good day sir
I enjoy your write ups but I notice some moves by almost every day by 4.00pm GMT +1 wat exactly happens at that time

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Difficult to say without knowing more.

    Reply
Ezekiel says

I had a bias that EU was going to be bearish since last week but i waited till 2days ago to go short, When the EU formed a bearish pin bar at 1.18000 handle. I waited for 50% retracement then i went in at 1.17750 been holding it since then. looking to add to my position when the market closes. This is one of the things i learnt from your beginner lesson and i use it, everyday it has been helpful. Thanks justin.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    My pleasure. Nice to know it’s working well for you.

    Reply
Thokozani says

Should we take that as a false brake Justin Sir?

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    It appears so for now.

    Reply
      Sera says

      What false break are you talking about? Kindly explain…

      Reply
        Sera says

        Oh…I see

        Reply
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