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The EURUSD is holding above key support ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision.
The confluence of support at 1.1075 is the same one we’ve discussed since December 27th of last year.
It’s also the area that needs to break down for the EURUSD to regain its bearish momentum.
As long as the pair is above it on a daily closing basis, the short-term uptrend is intact.
But as I’ve stated for weeks, I’m more interested in the eventual breakout than I am in this sideways movement.
Notice how the EURUSD has made little to no progress over the last few months.
One event that could trigger a breakout is Thursday’s ECB decision.
It’s actually several events.
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At 7:45 am EST, we get the rate decision and statement followed by a press conference at 8:30 am EST.
If those events don’t give us the volatility needed to move the EURUSD out of its range, perhaps Friday’s events will.
On Friday, we have several PMI readings that could induce volatility for both the euro and the British pound.
From a technical perspective, though, it comes down to 1.1075 and 1.1200.
Those areas outline the current range of the EURUSD.
A daily close below the 1.1075 support region would expose the next key support at 1.0990.
Alternatively, a move toward the descending channel top near 1.1200, followed by a close above it, would open the door to 1.1280.
The “daily close” refers to the New York 5 pm EST closing time.
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Will the events over the next two sessions give us a EURUSD breakout?
We won’t have to wait much longer to find out.