EURUSD broke above 1.1810 today, but the pair faces a hidden resistance area near 1.1880 tied to the 2022 channel.
With Wednesday’s FOMC and Powell’s press conference ahead, plus DXY pressing on key lows near 96.60, this week could decide whether the breakout sticks or fails.
EURUSD pushed through 1.1810 today, clearing that poor high from earlier this summer.
The pair is now pressing into a key resistance area between 1.1810 and 1.1880. That upper level comes from the channel resistance that extends off the 2023 high.
As long as EURUSD holds above 1.1810 on a daily closing basis, buyers remain in control. But this isn’t an easy area to chase longs given how close we are to resistance.
The next major decision point is 1.1880. A sustained close above it would open the door to 1.1908 and potentially higher levels into late September.
If the pair can’t clear 1.1880 this week, we may see a pullback into 1.1760 or even 1.1716. Those levels are new support as long as the market holds above them on a daily close.
The timing of this test couldn’t be more critical. Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, economic projections, and Powell’s press conference are on deck. Thursday brings jobless claims, which will add to the volatility.
Stay up-to-date on this week’s events so you don’t get caught offside.
So while the charts are constructive for the euro, the news flow means we could see plenty of whipsaws. This is one of those weeks where confirmation matters more than prediction.
Looking at the US Dollar Index, the chart supports what we’re seeing on EURUSD. The index is testing the 2011 channel support and pressing on the poor lows near 96.60.
A breakdown below 96.60 would confirm the bearish structure and favor continued euro strength. But if DXY bounces here, it could weigh on EURUSD and force a retest of nearby support.
For now, the playbook is simple. 1.1810 is support. 1.1880 is resistance. A daily close above or below those levels will set the tone for the rest of the week.
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