EURUSD: 1.2300 Is the Level to Watch

by Justin Bennett  · 

April 20, 2018

by Justin Bennett  · 

April 20, 2018

by Justin Bennett  · 

April 20, 2018

Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same style charts I use on this website.

After just ten trading days, the EURUSD is back to testing the “must hold” support level I mentioned on April 6. In fact, it’s already dropping below the level on an intraday basis.

What’s interesting about the last ten days is that buyers failed to challenge the 2008 trend line. You can see how the level has come under severe pressure beginning on January 25.

The fact that Euro bulls weren’t able to retest the 1.2440 area this time around could be a significant development. It may suggest that sellers are starting to regain some control here.

Of course, only time will tell. More specifically, today’s close at 5 pm EST (remember, I use New York close charts) will tell the story.

If the EURUSD closes the day below 1.2300, we’ll be staring at a break of a twelve-month trend line. It would also open the door to the next key support at 1.2160 with a close below that exposing the 1.2090 handle.

Alternatively, a daily close back above 1.2300 would keep the multi-month wedge pattern intact. It would also re-expose the 2008 trend line near 1.2440.

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EURUSD daily trend lines

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  1. It can also be seen as a mar-apr flag on a dec- jan flagpole. The flag or consolidation is contracting around 1.23.

  2. ECB meeting next week may break it loose. IMHO, I’m expecting normal dovish Draghi so the 1.216 level could be a quick reality by the end of the day of the meeting.

  3. Justin , thanks for this carefully thought-out analysis , it really helps others to have a focus in their own analysis of the market as well . I will consider selling the pair when the next daily candle closes below the trendline on the ground of seeing bearish price action signal .

  4. At the close of new york session on friday, the price was below 1.2300 with a bearish kind of pin bar candle on H4. Right before was a bullish pin bar on H4.
    What should we expect on Sunday opening of market cum monday London session.

  5. Something very interesting I noticed here . A bit of buying today tells me EUR is likely to have another go higher. The 1618 extension of the most recent 4H swing takes it to exactly 1.2555 which is the last recorded high on Feb 16.

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