Daily Price Action
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EURNZD Rally Coming to an End?

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The EURNZD has been in rally mode throughout 2017. The pair has gained nearly 3,000 pips since the 2017 low was carved out on February 7.

It has been an impressive rally, but every uptrend has a breaking point. The question is, what type of pattern could signal exhaustion from bulls?

The rising wedge that has been developing since the May to June period might be it. These structures suggest exhaustion and often signal at an imminent reversal.

To be clear, there isn’t anything for us to do just yet. The price is still well above wedge support, which would need to break down before we can label this a legitimate selling opportunity.

It’s going to take a daily close (New York 5 pm EST) below support between 1.6950 and 1.7000. Such a break would expose the next key support at 1.6620 followed by 1.6140.

Rising and falling wedges tend to target the swing high or low that started the pattern. In the case of the EURNZD, that would be the June low at 1.5234.

Keep in mind, however, that a move of that magnitude would likely take several months to play out. So instead of aiming for such an ambitious target, it may be better to focus on areas such as 1.6620 or 1.6140.

All of the above hinges on what happens at wedge support. Until sellers secure a daily close below the five-month support level, a seat on the sideline seems appropriate.

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EURNZD rising wedge on daily chart

Leave a Comment:

27 comments
mandla says

Thanks Justin

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
      Sabbir says

      Your analysis is awesome

      Reply
        Justin Bennett says

        Thanks, Sabbir. Pleased to know you’re enjoying it.

        Reply
Steve says

Thanks for the heads up

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Anytime, Steve. Cheers.

    Reply
OkoroDiop says

you one of few active mentors. keep up the good work

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Thank you, and I will.

    Reply
    Ade says

    A good man. Who won’t tell lies or sell dreams in forex

    Reply
Kwazi says

Awe thanks Justin 👍

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    You’re welcome.

    Reply
Chris says

Nice one Justin. I have got a nice equidistant Channel on the 1 day chart with a great prior pivot point on the top Channel around 05.28.2017. This channel zeros in a bit more and captures all the key price levels your excellent wedge is showing. Well spotted, really well done. Chris

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Thanks, Chris. I always appreciate a different perspective.

    Reply
Lu says

Has triple top occurred now? I am short.

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tammy says

Does the eur/nzd,,on the month chrt look like this leg up was off an inverse H&S and now possibly going to form a right shoulder for a H&S?

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    Justin Bennett says

    I don’t see it.

    Reply
Rotimi Olofin says

Thanks for the analysis. I’m a newcomer in the trade and learning so much.

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Great to hear! Welcome to the site.

    Reply
RV says

Awesome Justin

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Lawrence John UWEMEDIMO says

How can I be able to to do trades sir

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    What do you mean, exactly?

    Reply
Bilal says

EURNZD used 1.7131 as a resistance and then breaked this Resistance and moved up and retested old resistance and new support then now again pinbar at new support level that is looking to move up to 1.7400
confusing EURNZD will continue its uptrend or will reversing

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    It’s all in the commentary. I’m waiting for a break of wedge support.

    Reply
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