The DXY is on the move today, holding above 97.70 support.
That’s the level we’ve been talking about all week, so let’s take a look at what this means for the dollar, the euro, and the pound.
DXY Holding 97.70 Support
On the one-hour chart, the dollar finally broke above 97.70 after spending the past few days sitting on it.
That was the level I pointed out in last week’s forecast as being critical after last Friday’s close.
The weekly chart really set the stage. You can see where the DXY dipped under 97.70 a few times, but then closed back above it. That made this whole area support again.
We also had an imbalance down around 97.50. I talked about the potential for a wick into that spot earlier this week, and sure enough, that box got cleaned up before buyers stepped in.
So the range right now is pretty simple: support between 97.50–97.70 and resistance up at 98.60.
DXY Bigger Picture
If you zoom out, the monthly chart still shows the bottom of that 2011 channel holding. That’s been massive support and it’s what helped spark the recent bounce after FOMC.
Yes, 2025 has been a rough year for the dollar overall, but in the past few months it hasn’t been trending lower. It’s been sideways.
Since that last low, the DXY has actually been carving out some higher highs and higher lows. If this support holds, 98.60 is the obvious upside target.
And remember, that 98.60 level also lines up with the top of a descending channel on the daily chart. So once again, symmetry.
EURUSD Analysis
The euro has been slipping after breaking below the February trend line.
It’s now putting in lower highs and lower lows, which lines up with what we’re seeing from the DXY.
The weekly chart shows the bigger range the euro has been stuck in since 2022. Two touches off the top this year, and that’s why I keep mentioning the idea of a potential topping pattern. We don’t have confirmation yet, but it’s something to keep in mind.
On the four-hour, the euro is testing the bottom of that congestion. If today’s candle closes below those recent lows, that area flips to resistance and we could be looking at 1.1699 and 1.1657. Those are unfinished auctions that tend to act like magnets.
Longer term, there’s also an imbalance pocket closer to 1.1500.
The invalidation for the bearish idea is up near 1.1850. Even if we see a bounce, that’s the line in the sand for me.
GBPUSD Analysis
The pound gave us a bullish fakeout last Friday when it closed back above 1.3380.
That was enough to trigger a rally into this week’s consolidation before turning lower again.
There are imbalances near 1.3560–1.3580, but it doesn’t have to tag those levels right away.
If GBPUSD loses 1.3330, that opens the door to 1.3200, which is where we saw that aggressive bounce from earlier this year.
For now, still a range.
