Can the DXY hold a level from 2011? Will EURUSD break its 2022 channel resistance? How about GBPUSD and those imbalances from July?
I’m answering those questions in today’s video as we approach a critical Fed rate decision and press conference.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The dollar index is sitting at a make-or-break spot just hours before the Fed call.
On the daily chart, price is leaning hard on 96.70. That is the trend line support tied back to this summer’s lows.
The bigger picture makes it even more interesting. The monthly chart shows 96.70 lining up with the 2021 to 2022 pivot lows.
Lose that level on a daily close, and we could be talking about 94.65 in a hurry. That would be the first real breakdown in years.
But flip the script with a close back above 97.70, and it looks like a bear trap. In that case, 98.60 and 99.35 are the logical bounce zones.
The Fed is a wild card. Whipsaws are common, so daily closes carry the weight here.
Either we confirm a fresh downtrend or the dollar proves it still has a floor—nothing in between matters.
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EURUSD Forecast
EURUSD is knocking on the door of 1.1900. That door has not opened easily in the past.
That same zone capped rallies in early 2024. Price has been climbing inside an ascending channel and is now pressing the top rail.
Zoom out to the weekly chart, and it gets louder. The 1.1900 to 1.2100 band has acted as supply for years.
A clean daily close above 1.1900 points the way to 1.2100. Get through that, and the long-term story leans bullish.
If sellers hold the line, the downside is clear. Pullbacks toward 1.1580 or even 1.1440 are on the table.
This is not the place to chase. Better to wait for a breakout that sticks or a rejection that confirms.
GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD has pushed into the 1.3660s and is now pressing resistance.
The 1.3680 to 1.3730 zone has capped price since July. It is the real test for buyers.
A daily close above 1.3730 clears the way to 1.3870. That would be a decisive win for bulls.
If resistance holds, price could slip back to 1.3610. A deeper dip could reach 1.3480.
The Fed adds fuel for shakeouts. That makes patience more important than prediction.
Only a confirmed close above 1.3730 proves the breakout is real. Anything less leaves the risk of another rejection and range play.
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