Daily Price Action
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CADJPY Carves 4-Hour Ascending Channel

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

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The CADJPY, like other yen pairs, has been weighed down in recent months. Safe haven flows have sent the Japanese yen soaring, and I don’t expect that theme to change anytime soon.

However, that doesn’t mean we won’t see bouts of yen weakness. With the exception of the CHFJPY, all of the yen pairs have clawed back some of their losses over the last couple of weeks.

In the case of the CADJPY, the pair has carved an ascending channel on the 4-hour time frame. And seeing as how this pattern has formed on the back of a 1,100 pip slide, it appears to signal further losses ahead.

Now, that does not mean the pair will move lower from its current price. When trading any technical pattern, it’s imperative to wait for confirmation. For an ascending channel such as this, that means a close below channel support.

Of course, there’s also the option to look for an opportunity to sell on a retest of channel resistance. Just keep in mind that this pattern cannot be deemed “complete” until support gives way.

A close below support would expose the recent swing low at 80.55. A daily close (New York 5 pm EST) below that would have us targeting the next critical support at 79.30.

Alternatively, a close above channel resistance would negate the idea in the near-term. I would not entertain a long entry if that were to occur.

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CADJPY 4-hour channel

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14 comments
remalo says

Thank you for your analysis. I’m looking forward what you telling about the my favorite pair GBP / JPY.

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Geniusbami says

I made this analysis yesterday where I saw the bullish potential from the inverted SHS angle.

CadJ H8: The unsymmetric inverted SHS is worth some attention for about 200 pips. Dilemma is where to place the entry after a strong Daily momentum candle. However, 2 levels come to mind. 1 is narrowly broken 23.6% Fibo & 2, broken Neckline at 82.62. Measured objective is 85.752, or 50% Retracement level just nearby at 86.065.

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Nguyen+Dinh says

TKS!

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Rogers says

I have been comparing your analysis its woow…it really motivates

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ton says

I sold at 83.29 its that safe?

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    Justin Bennett says

    You’re asking the wrong question.

    The right question is…does your entry comply with the rules you’ve set for yourself?

    If you don’t have any rules or didn’t follow them and sold only because of my post, that’s a problem.

    Reply
      Mattilight says

      Lol!! Can’t jst stop laughing at ur response to the question. A very good answer from the great mentor him self. I keep saying that those struggling traders or newbies that are not following ur blog are really missing

      Reply
        Justin Bennett says

        It pains me to see someone buy or sell just because the market reaches a level I pointed out.

        The reality is that a lot of the ideas I post never materialize into valid setups. This appears to be one of those.

        Reply
      Soweto Born Mining Magnate says

      In any case one cant just short a level without any confluence. No price action signal. It is better to have a personal trade plan and journal, at that point you would even realize it is not wise to blind trade intraday charts especially with no confluence backing it. It wasn’t even a false break. At least false break does favour a blind entry only on higher time frames when trading like a sniper instead of of machine gunning everything that looks. like entry

      Reply
        HarryT says

        Short around 83.30 made sense, provided price action showed the trend reversing back to the channel. (That area has held as resistance back to early March). CAD was one of the few that showed strength today against the yen. I suggest the short move is still in play.

        Reply
        Roy says

        “At least false break does favour a blind entry only on higher time frames when trading like a sniper instead of of machine gunning everything that looks. like entry”

        Yes, this is the beauty of the higher timeframes, usually when Coach Justin posts these daily set ups we must do our own due dilligence in seeing if a potential set up will manifest or not.

        but yes sniper trading is what it’s all about, sometimes i wait weeks for a trade.

        Reply
FELIX+GREAT says

Thank you Justin for great analysis. It is helpful Sir.

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Simon John says

Thank you for a good analysis

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muh natsir says

terima kasih Justin bannett atas signal yang kamu berikan kepada kami secara gratis semoga kamu sehat dan sukses selalu amin

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