AUDUSD is breaking down from a range that’s been intact since early March.
It’s been an incredible 200-pip range to trade for those who took advantage of it.
However, if today’s session closes below 0.6580, it will mark the lowest daily close for the Australian dollar since November 9th, 2022.
It would also confirm a breakdown from the recent range.
That said, shorting AUDUSD here is ill-advised, in my opinion.
You never want to short a pair that’s already down 1% on the day after breaking a multi-month range.
Furthermore, the Australian dollar is trading just above the key 0.6525 level.
You can see this area’s significance as resistance between September and November of last year.
So it makes sense to assume that buyers will want to defend 0.6525 as new support.
But instead of looking for longs from 0.6525, I’ll watch for shorts on a retest of 0.6580 if we get it.
Alternatively, a sustained break on the higher time frames below 0.6525 opens up 0.6390.
Only a daily close back above 0.6590 would negate my bearish bias for AUDUSD.
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