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AUDUSD Shorts Favored Below 0.7640

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Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

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The AUDUSD has taken a beating over the last few days. Just when it looked as though buyers were gaining some traction above 0.7750, sellers were there to cap any advance.

The pair lost more than 200 pips in the final three sessions of last week. But the most significant development occurred during Friday’s session, namely when the pair closed for the week at 5 pm EST.

You may recall the trend line that extends from the 2016 low. I mentioned it way back on January 31 as the pair was approaching key resistance. You can see that commentary here.

From where I’m sitting, the AUDUSD broke that 2016 support level last Friday. The sub 0.7630 close made sure of that.

Sellers also managed to crack the 0.7640 horizontal level. You can see from the chart below how this area has served as a pivot since October of last year.

This breakdown leaves us watching for a retest of the 0.7630/40 area as new resistance. The next key support doesn’t come in until the 0.7500 handle which leaves us with plenty of room to work with.

Keep in mind that we could see some consolidation for the next few days before the next leg lower materializes. At the moment, the AUDUSD is trading nearly 100 pips below the daily mean, suggesting a temporary pause in the selling pressure.

Only a daily close (New York 5 pm EST) back above the 0.7640 area would negate the bearish outlook.

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AUDUSD new resistance area

Leave a Comment:

16 comments
Pawel says

Thanks for sharing. What about the resistance line formed when connecting lows on 02/09, 03/01 and 03/29 (actually the price is close it this line today)? Don’t you think that this may it more challenging for bears? (perhaps it is better to wait until this resistance is breached?)

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Don’t you mean support? A 2+ year level trumps one that’s been around for a couple of months. That said, it doesn’t mean the pair won’t find support at the level you mentioned.

    Reply
      Pawel says

      Sure, I meant support 🙂 (sorry) And thanks for reply.

      Reply
Noel says

Thank you for explanation because was asking myself questions about where is the pair heading from here. Now I got my answers. Can you share some light about eurusd

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Roy says

thanks coach.
let’s see if we get that all important retest.

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Sahibzada says

Dear sir,
Thanks for sharing your analysis. As the chart shows technical analysis only. Do you incorporate standard analysis or news analysis that affects prices as well.
How much a technical analysis would be reliable for trades without considering the news.

Thanks ,

Reply
    Bokhory+raja says

    A technical analysis already incorporate the news in it just follow technicals and need not worry about news as the news complete the way the technicals should be going.

    Reply
andrea says

Hi Justin. It seems the usd is finally rebounding higher or it’s just an illusion?

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Deos says

Nice analysis, i put a sell limit since yesterday breakdown. Please would explain me why you think consolidation may occur before the next leg lower?

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Chris says

Is there a room for the pair to go lower? Any short entry here would be only for meagre gain. I agree with you on consolidation for few days then a push up

Reply
    Justin Bennett says

    Hi Chris, I didn’t mention anything about an entry at current levels.

    “This breakdown leaves us watching for a retest of the 0.7630/40 area as new resistance.”

    Reply
      chris says

      I get you Justin! Thanks as always!

      Reply
derrick says

i already wet short on that pair

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SHEPHERD says

..hie justin. i am new to this but its promising. thnks

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SHAHRIL AZHAR says

terbaikkkk sir

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