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AUDUSD Potential Opportunity in Focus as RBA Rate Statement Looms

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Since the start of 2016 AUDUSD has traded within an ascending channel that extends from the 0.6827 handle. It’s one of the more prominent technicals patterns on my watch list and is something I mentioned several times back in July.

As impressive as the eight-month channel is, there is an even larger descending channel in place that dates back to April of 2013.

AUDUSD weekly

The two weekly bearish pin bars that formed last month were byproducts of channel resistance at 0.7750. With the pair now off of those weekly highs by 170 pips and an RBA rate statement just around the corner, AUDUSD is at a crossroads.

To be clear, I have no intention of trading the Aussie ahead of the 12:30 am EST decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The uncertainty combined with the heightened volatility that follows a decision such as this create a trading environment that is less than favorable.

And given the long-term resistance area just above current prices at 0.7750, I’m also not interested in a long position. I am, however, interested in selling the pair but only if we get a daily close below ascending channel support, which is still about 150 pips away.

Such a close would expose the May low at 0.7160 with a break there opening the door for a retest of the current 2016 low at 0.6827.

In summary, I’ll be on the sidelines until this ascending channel gives way, at which time I’ll begin watching for selling opportunities for a potential move lower.

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AUDUSD ascending channel

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1 comment
Abdullah Alomran says

RBC recommends long AUD/CAD positions, targeting 1.01 with a stop at 0.9760. AUD/CAD trades at 0.9847, up 0.3% on the day. RBC says recent Australian data have been “reasonably firm.” Canada, however, faces “continuously disappointing” non-oil exports, although the latest trade report saw a better monthly performance, RBC says. “The forward rate curve in Canada is almost entirely flat,” it says, leaving the risks around the Bank of Canada’s statement on Wednesday “asymmetric to the downside.” AUD/CAD also benefits if FX markets remain sensitive to outright yield as a driver, it says. AUD trades firmer, with AUD/USD jumping in Asia after “an easing bias [was] difficult to detect” in a Reserve Bank of Australia statement and before GDP data overnight .

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