Weekly Forex Forecast (April 29 – May 3, 2019)

by Justin Bennett  · 

April 28, 2019

by Justin Bennett  · 

April 28, 2019

by Justin Bennett  · 

April 28, 2019

Important: This site uses New York Close Forex Charts so that each 24-hour session starts and ends at 5 pm EST. These charts are essential for trading price action.

EURUSD broke a significant support level last week.

The 1.1180 level had supported the single currency since the beginning of March.

However, Wednesday’s 1.1152 close means that any retest of the 1.1180 area will likely encounter sellers.

We saw some of that occur on Friday.

After reaching a high of 1.1173, the EURUSD lost over 30 pips just before the weekend.

But that wasn’t enough for me to pull the trigger.

First, the pair was still nearly 50 pips from the 10 and 20 daily EMAs even by Friday’s high. That alone suggests we could see another push higher this week.

Second, EURUSD didn’t quite retest the 1.1180 area. It came close, but I’d prefer to see a convincing test of the region as new resistance.

I would also be careful not to get too aggressive with shorts here.

If we see an immediate retest of 1.1180 as new resistance, it will signal there’s more demand below the area than shorts may want to see.

That’s why I always prefer to see a rounded retest of a key level.

I’m going to give the EURUSD some space for now. I’m in no hurry to get in this market or any other for that matter.

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EURUSD new resistance level

GBPUSD played out relatively well for shorts last week.

I wrote about the bearish inside bar on April 22nd.

The signal followed a break of channel support on the 18th. And despite some intraday strength on the 23rd, sellers played their part well.

I think GBPUSD has more downside potential, though.

Last week found support at the gap that formed between February 15th and 18th at 1.2885.

Whether or not that support holds is yet to be seen.

However, channel breaks like the one that occurred on April 18th tend to target the pattern’s inception point, or in this case the 1.2800 handle.

Key resistance for the week ahead comes in between 1.2980 and 1.3000.

And if sellers intend to force a retest of the February lows at 1.2800, they’re going to have to get past 1.2885 first.

GBPUSD upward sloping flag on the daily chart

USDJPY hasn’t been the most attractive market to trade.

The pair has gone nowhere fast since early March. Even the dip in the last two weeks of March was a bit confusing when put into context.

Now, I’m not saying the USDJPY is now a top trade idea by any means, but last week’s breakdown is somewhat intriguing.

First, the selloff that occurred on Thursday and Friday to some degree carved a bearish engulfing week at a swing high.

That could be indicative in and of itself.

Furthermore, Friday appears to have cleared a short-term support level that extends from the March 5th high.

The pair also cleared the trend line from the March low on Thursday.

All in all, things look relatively bearish for USDJPY moving forward.

If sellers can get behind this breakdown, we could see the pair move lower toward the next key support at 111.00 this week.

A daily close below that would open up the March low at 109.70.

Alternatively, buyers need to secure a daily close above the 112.30 horizontal level to negate the bearish scenario and keep the 2019 rally intact.

IMPORTANT: I use New York close charts so that each day closes at 5 pm EST.

Click Here to get access to the same charts I use.

USDJPY breakdown on the daily time frame

I’ve written about GBPNZD several times since March 26th.

I even commented last week that GBPNZD could be the top trade idea of 2019.

The technicals here are incredibly convincing, and the opportunity is one you probably don’t want to miss.

That said, there are no guarantees in this business.

So while the GBPNZD rising wedge below looks promising, there’s still plenty of time for the technicals to break down.

But as of Friday’s close, I think there’s a good reason to believe the pair is close to finally breaking wedge support near 1.9320.

Last week’s price action carved a bearish pin bar of sorts which may hint at future weakness.

The pair also retested a key weekly area at 1.9570 last week.

This area has been a factor since late 2017. It’s also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the impulsive selloff between October and December of last year.

Be sure to see my April 26th post for all the details.

GBPNZD rising wedge on the daily chart

In early April, WTI cleared rising wedge resistance near 61.60.

The market went on to carve two new swing highs above the 63.60 region.

However, like most upward breaks of ascending patterns, it didn’t last.

As of Friday’s close, the last three weeks of movement are nothing more than a false break.

Even the weekly time frame shows a bearish engulfing pattern.

WTI weekly bearish engulfing candle

In fact, this last week’s candle engulfed the previous two weeks.

Crude oil is also back below the 64.00 handle which served as key support for the market in June and August of last year.

Any retest of the area between 63.20 and 63.60 this week is likely to attract sellers.

With that in mind, I favor selling WTI for what could be a substantial move lower.

How low, exactly?

It’s difficult to say, but as long as oil is below 63.60 resistance on a daily closing basis, the 60.30 area is exposed followed by 58.20 and 55.40.

And if the market treats this as a rising wedge, it puts the objective at the pattern’s inception point or 42.45.

Buyers would need to secure a daily close back above the 64.50 area to negate the bearish outlook.

Want to see how we’re trading these currency pairs and more? 

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WTI rising wedge on the daily time frame

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  2. Yohoho… Thank you Mr J.. all in all, the uncertainty about pin bar and daily close is begs to differ.. I am in your debt for that knowledge..

  3. Wow, this weeks idea sir is plain, just we wait for price to meet our criteria. Thank you Sir Justin for another great breakdown of the weekly outlook

  4. Thanks sir. I am partially a housewife learning Forex by myself. I try to understand your analysis. Thanks for the great support. Sir, what should I do to be confident of SL and TP. Any specific strategy ? I usually see 1h, 4h , 1D charts to confirm the trend but still not so confident with SL and TP.
    Best Regards,

  5. Good Day Sir, Thanks for the weekly updates.Am very grateful and appreciates your kind generosity. May the Almighty God in His Mercy continue to guide and direct you aright,and protect you and your family from all evil.

  6. The USOIL Setup… Big Up Mentor… I Will Trade This Pair For The Next 2 Month Coming… I Sell Deep.

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