We discussed the USDJPY on October 2 when the pair was trading at 112.62. Buyers had just tested the confluence of resistance in the 113.00 region and looked hungry for more.
Just 24 hours later bulls secured a daily close (5 pm EST) above the trend line that extends from the current 2017 high. This left the pair stranded between new trend line support (old resistance) and the 113.15 horizontal level.
Fast forward to today, and market participants are still fighting the same battle. We can see that the pair has not closed below new trend line support nor has it breached 113.15 resistance on a daily closing basis.
Some may be tempted to trade Friday’s bearish pin bar from the 113.15 area. But there are two reasons I won’t be trading it.
- The sideways price action suggests that neither buyers nor sellers are in control
- Trend line support from the current 2017 high is still intact.
As always, if I have to question the validity of a setup, it isn’t worth the risk. To be more succinct: when in doubt, I do nothing.
With Monday being a U.S. holiday, I don’t see a break occurring today. That’s okay because the USDJPY needs more time to decide which way it wants to go. Until then, there’s nothing to do here as far as I’m concerned.
A daily close above the 113.15 handle would expose the July high near 114.35. If buyers were to manage a break above that level, there wouldn’t be much preventing a retest of the January and March highs at 115.40.
Alternatively, a daily close below new trend line support near 112.50 would expose 111.60 followed by 110.90.
This week is relatively light in terms of event risk. On Wednesday at 2 pm EST, we have the FOMC meeting minutes. Then on Thursday, we have PPI and unemployment claims at 8:30 am EST followed by Friday’s CPI and retail sales at the same time.
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Hi JB,
Would you please let us know why you wouldn’t consider a two bearish pin bars into resistance area on Friday combined with the one on Weekly as a sign to go short?
Thanks for your advice!
Please read the post. It’s all there.
Yes, I saw that you were referring to Friday pin bar, but I was thinking that 2 pin bars, 1 on daily combined with the 1 on weekly could make a difference!
It doesn’t make a difference. Also, I wouldn’t call that a pin bar on the weekly.
whats criteria used making reference to weekly TF when the set up is in daily TF?
Thank you for your time Justin!
It’s appreciated.
@Justin I was engaged to be able to attend the webinar on the 7 secrets to consistent fx master class. I was happy when I saw that email u sent on the video. Unfortunately, I couldn’t watch it cos its refusing to play. I very well know its not my internet connection. Is there not any other option for us to watch it. Maybe a youtube link or something. Thanks and God bless you
At present USDJPY is transitioning in a tight consol. I’m ready and patient for a decisive move either way, before I move.Thanks for preparing us Justin.
Anytime, Howard.
Thank you Justin
You’re welcome.
please using 1hour timeframe, which candle should be considered closed at 10pm? is it the candle that formed at 9pm and close @ 10pm or the candle that formed@ 10pm and close @ 11pm?
I don’t use the 1-hour chart. I use the daily (New York close 5 pm EST).
Thank you Justin B you the best and the chart u send they help us a lot god bless u
You’re welcome. Cheers.
but any candle that formed @ 5pm EST is a start of new day candle?
After daily candle closed below 112.5 level I put a sell entry . But now the market is lagging advice