Important: This site uses New York Close Forex Charts so that each 24-hour session starts and ends at 5 pm EST. These charts are essential for trading price action.
Before April 12th, the AUDJPY had spent three months in a 230 pip range.
That 80.31 close on the 12th made it look as though the pair was ready for the next leg up.
But it wasn’t meant to be.
Despite catching a bid at 79.80 for several days, the AUDJPY closed back inside this range on Tuesday.
I’m treating this recent move above the 79.80 area as a false break.
And as I point out quite often, a false break in one direction often triggers an extended move in the opposite direction.
That means additional losses for AUDJPY.
The good news is that if you missed the entry at Tuesday’s 5 pm EST close, there might be another chance to get short here.
If we draw a trend line starting with the February 21st high, we can see that the pair is at risk of closing back below it.
You can even see how buyers defended this area on the 8th and 10th of April.
As usual, it’s going to take a daily close below this short-term trend line to confirm the break.
That means waiting for today’s session to close at 5 pm EST.
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If AUDJPY closes today below 78.80, there isn’t much to prevent a run at the range bottom at 77.50.
And that may be just the start.
Given the recent false break (see chart above), I wouldn’t be surprised to see AUDJPY also break 77.50 support over the coming sessions.
That would give us a target of 75.40 which is also the closing price of the January 3rd flash crash.
But again, it all comes down to today’s 5 pm EST close.
A close below 78.80 would be bearish while a close above it would keep the pair afloat a while longer.
That said, I’m only interested in selling opportunities for now.
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