The forex market tightened up last week with the US holiday, but we finally have some clean areas of interest forming on the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and gold.
A few of these markets are sitting right above important areas, so this week could bring solid opportunities if we get the right pullbacks.
Watch today’s video for the full breakdown, the exact levels I’m watching, and how I plan to trade each market. As always, none of this is financial advice.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The DXY has been range-bound for a few weeks and today’s bounce comes right off the 99.00 lows. That 99.40 pivot we’ve talked about is still acting as support after flipping from resistance.
The bigger focus here is structure, not the trend line. A lot of traders assume a trend line break means a new bearish trend, but the structure only shifts when the market takes out the low that created the last break of structure.
The current low being tested didn’t produce that break. The real line in the sand is the low near the unmitigated September FVG around 98.60.
Until that level breaks, shorting breakdowns inside this range is how traders get trapped. The short-term bias also stays bearish while the dollar trades below last week’s key high, which keeps the path open for a move into 98.60.
A break above that high would change things, but unless that happens, the base case is still a push into the September fair value gap.
EURUSD Forecast
EURUSD is pushing above the top of a channel on the daily chart, but I don’t treat that as a confirmed breakout by itself. The bigger detail is that price still hasn’t cleared the high that produced the last major break of structure.
Until that happens, the broader downtrend technically remains intact. Buyers do have control on the lower timeframes, but the euro is in the premium side of the distribution channel, which limits long setups up here.
The main area I’m watching sits below 1.15890, where we have a clean set of equal lows. Liquidity builds up under levels like this, so I want to see that swept before I consider any long setups.
Below that, there’s an unmitigated one-hour bullish FVG between 1.1578 and 1.1590, and the 0.618 and 0.786 fib levels line up with it. That creates a tight pocket that makes sense for a reaction.
If we get a sweep into that zone, I’ll drop to the lower time frames to look for a bullish change of character. If we get it, the first target becomes last week’s high near 1.1668. If we don’t, then there’s nothing for me to do.
GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD is still in a clear higher-timeframe downtrend and we’re nowhere close to the highs that would need to break to flip the overall structure. Anything I’m watching here is short-term only.
Just like the euro, the pound has equal lows I want to see taken out, but my main level of interest sits lower at 1.31480. That zone lines up with the 50 percent of a key one-hour wick, last month’s lows near 1.3140, and an unmitigated September low up at 1.3324.
The 30-minute chart also shows an unmitigated bullish order block that created a bullish FVG. That area produced a break of structure, and on top of that, the monthly TPO point of control is sitting right at 1.3148.
This creates strong confluence, but I still need confirmation before doing anything. A drop into the level followed by a bullish change of character on a lower timeframe is what gives me a stop-loss anchor and a real setup.
If that shift appears, my first target is the recent highs, followed by the September FVG. If price slices through the level without a shift, I stay on the sidelines.
XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast
Gold has shown strong bullish structure with multiple upward breaks of structure, which tells me buyers are in control. That also means I can’t justify shorting it or buying it at a premium near the highs.
To get involved, I need a pullback into discount. The best pocket sits between $4,100 and $4,130, where we have a weekly FVG, a daily FVG, the 50 percent and 0.618 fib levels, a TPO single print, and a trend line from recent lows.
All of that gives me a clean, well-defined demand zone, but it only matters if price actually pulls back into it. If gold keeps pushing higher, there is simply no setup for me.
If we do get a pullback into that region, I’ll look for the same pattern I always use. I want lower highs and lower lows during the pullback, followed by the first significant higher high to confirm a bullish change of character.
If that happens, the first target becomes the recent highs. The next targets sit higher in the unmitigated FVGs and buy-side single prints from the earlier drop. If the pocket never gets tested, I’ll stand aside.
