The 2025 EURUSD uptrend is alive, but the next 24 hours could decide the pair’s fate next week.
Watch today’s video for an update on Thursday’s reversal and what to watch on Friday. I’m also sharing a potential US Dollar Index (DXY) scenario you won’t want to miss.
EURUSD is pulling back today after closing the last two sessions above 1.1275. Thursday’s PMI data didn’t massively disappoint for the euro, but it might not be enough to fuel the next leg up.
I discussed the discrepancy between the daily and weekly time frames in Wednesday’s Forex Mid-Week Analysis. The key takeaway is that EURUSD is above 1.1200 and 1.1275 on the daily chart but has yet to close a week above.
Of course, that could change. But for now, some caution regarding this week’s rally is necessary.
Remember that the DXY must also reclaim 100.20 on the daily time frame. That’s the only path for a EURUSD bearish reversal to take shape. As long as the USD index is below that mark, there’s no reason to be bullish on the US dollar.
If EURUSD closes this week below 1.1275 and 1.1200, last week’s breakdown is intact. In that case, expect EURUSD to trend lower next week.
If the pair closes above, especially regarding 1.1275, expect higher from the euro next week. The same goes for the DXY concerning 100.20.
Given the sideways price action since April, I’m not in a rush to trade EURUSD. However, the USDCHF trade idea I discussed on Wednesday is on my radar should the pair reclaim 0.8330. As always, time will tell.
