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EURUSD had trouble making progress of any kind last week.
I wrote about the 1.1340/50 support area on June 25th. I’ve also mentioned 1.1410 resistance since May.
These two levels marked last week’s boundaries perfectly.
However, the fact that the euro isn’t backing away from resistance is relatively bullish, at least for now.
That said, buyers need to secure a daily close above 1.1410 to push the pair higher this week.
Such a break would expose the 1.1560 region.
Alternatively, if sellers take out 1.1340 on a daily closing basis, we could see EURUSD slide lower toward 1.1260.
The GBPUSD range I wrote about last Sunday has held up so far.
It appeared buyers wanted to take the pair higher before last week, but that 1.2750 resistance area held firm.
However, just like EURUSD, I’m not convinced that sellers can keep this up.
Although 1.2750 is holding as resistance so far, GBPUSD isn’t backing down, at least not in a meaningful way.
I also think that bounce from 1.2500 was too aggressive to be faded with any degree of confidence.
In other words, I think GBPUSD needs more time to sort itself out.
A daily close above 1.2750 would have us watching for buying opportunities for a move to the next key resistance at 1.2880 and perhaps 1.2980.
I wrote about GBPNZD several times throughout April and May.
The pair had carved a rising wedge on the daily time frame which usually signals a turn lower.
However, the pair closed above wedge resistance on May 1st.
But as you may well know, I never buy topside breaks of ascending levels. That’s because they have a high failure rate.
The GBPNZD breakout on May 1st was no exception.
The pair spent nine days above the wedge top before closing back below it on May 14th.
We then got the break below wedge support on the 23rd of May. That breakdown triggered a steady fade into the 1.9050 region.
With last week’s close below this area, I would expect any retest of 1.9050 up to 1.9100 to be met with selling pressure.
And as long as GBPNZD remains below 1.9100, my sights are set on the next key support at 1.8630.
GBPCAD worked out beautifully for us in June.
I wrote about the imminent breakdown here on June 4th as it was happening.
That sub 1.6980 close on the 6th meant that any retest of the area was likely to encounter selling pressure.
Sure enough, the June 7th session retested 1.6980 reaching a high of 1.7005 before selling off aggressively into the close.
Since then, GBPCAD has faded nicely for us and even reached our 1.6600 target last week.
For this week it’s all about 1.6750 resistance and that same 1.6600 support area.
As long as GBPCAD is above the 1.6600 region, the pair is susceptible to bounces.
But a retest of 1.6750 would pique my interest for another short trade as long as we get some sort of bearish price action as confirmation.
Alternatively, a daily close below 1.6600 (ideally 1.6580) would have me watching for a selling opportunity on a retest of the area as new resistance.
Key support below that comes in at 1.6360.
WTI crude oil has respected key levels incredibly well this year.
You can see how crude oil respected these levels on the way up during the first half of the year as well as on the way down in May.
However, the market has rebounded in a big way since reaching that 50.60/70 support area that I’ve pointed out several times recently.
The future of this rebound comes down to whether or not buyers can keep prices above the 58.00 handle.
You can see where 58.00 served as a pivot in March and as support in late May.
If sellers close the day below 58.00, we could see WTI trend back toward the 55.40 area.
Alternatively, a daily close above 60.30 would extend the rally toward 63.60.
Justin Bennett is an internationally recognized Forex trader with 10+ years of experience. He's been interviewed by Stocks & Commodities Magazine as a featured trader for the month and is mentioned weekly by Forex Factory next to publications from CNN and Bloomberg. Justin created Daily Price Action in 2014 and has since grown the monthly readership to over 100,000 Forex traders and has personally mentored more than 3,000 students.Read more...
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