Daily Price Action

Weekly Forex Forecast (November 27 – December 1, 2017)


EURUSD bulls cracked another significant resistance level last week at 1.1875. It’s the starting point of last month’s move lower that took the single currency below 1.1670.

Last week’s break comes just days after buyers closed the pair above the trend line from the current 2017 high. As you can see from the chart below, bulls flocked to the November 21 retest of former trend line resistance as new support.

Any retest of 1.1875 as new support over the coming sessions will likely encounter an influx of buying pressure. However, prices are getting a bit overextended from the 10 and 20 EMAs, so patience is key here.

During the holiday season, I like to wait for confirming price action more often than not. This is due to the decrease in volume that often occurs in late November and throughout December.

By ‘confirming price action’, I’m referring to a signal such as a pin bar or engulfing candle. As always, the decision is yours and yours alone as to how you approach the EURUSD and every other idea I publish on this site.

Key resistance comes in at 1.2040. It’s the 2012 low and was responsible for attracting the offers that formed the September 8 bearish pin bar.

Only a daily close at 5 pm EST back below 1.1875 would negate the bullish outlook. It would also re-expose the 1.1670 handle.

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EURUSD bullish break on the daily chart

GBPUSD bulls pulled off a significant victory last week. The November 22 close above 1.3290 was the first since September 29 and could mark a turning point for the pound sterling.

In early November it seemed as though sellers would close the pair below channel support near 1.3100. However, buyers held their ground and have since pushed prices higher by more than 250 pips.

That said, GBPUSD bulls have their work cut out for them this week. Trend line resistance from the 2014 high is once again in focus. That level comes in near the 1.3370/80 area.

We’re still watching and waiting for the GBPUSD to make its move. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the terminal pattern that has formed as a result of trend line resistance and channel support will be the deciding factor going forward.

Those two levels intersect at some point in December. So, sometime between now and then, the pair has a big decision to make. Either break above the 2014 trend line or below ascending channel support from the March low.

Either way, the outcome could offer one of the best opportunities of 2017. In fact, a breakout from the terminal pattern will likely have repercussions that extend well into 2018.

In the short-term, however, the GBPUSD is range bound between 1.3290 support and 1.3370/80 resistance.

GBPUSD terminal pattern on the daily time frame

On November 15 we looked at how the USDJPY was trading below the key 113.15 handle. It’s a level we’ve had on our radar for weeks and one that would indicate a turn lower if broken.

At the time, prices had plunged below 113.15, but the pair hadn’t yet closed the day below the level. However, just a few hours after Wednesday’s commentary, sellers secured a 112.85 close.

That set up a short opportunity on a retest of the 113.15 area as new resistance. For the price action trader, it was one of those ‘bread and butter’ types of setups.

A support turned resistance (or vice versa) level like this is one of the purest forms of trading price action. But make no mistake. It’s also one of the most lucrative ways to make money and in a relatively short period of time.

The November 16 bearish rejection candle from 113.15 was our signal to go short. As mentioned in the last two commentaries, the target was horizontal support at 111.60. Sellers reached the level last week, which secured a 3.8R profit.

With the pair now trading below 111.60 on a daily and weekly closing basis, the recent losing streak looks poised to continue. As long as prices hold below 111.60 on a daily closing basis (5 pm EST), I will remain bearish. Key support comes in at 110.20.

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USDJPY break below key support

On November 21, we discussed how the USDCAD terminal pattern was nearing completion. It’s a combination of trend line support from the current 2017 low and trend line resistance from the current 2017 high.

The November 22 close below trend line support brought this terminal structure to an end. It was preceded by a 4-hour close below support at 1.2757. I mentioned this break in the member’s area as it was happening.

As long as the resistance area at 1.2770 holds on a daily closing basis, downside levels remain exposed. Those targets include 1.2590 followed by 1.2420.

Both dollars have quite a bit of event risk to feed off of in the coming week. This is particularly true when Janet Yellen testifies starting at 10 am EST on Wednesday.

The Canadian dollar will likely experience the most volatility on Friday with the release of Canada employment numbers and the latest GDP figure.

USDCAD break below key support area

Since breaking channel support on September 12, the EURGBP has gone nowhere fast. The pair has been limited to a 270 pip range between 0.8745 support and 0.9015 resistance since late September.

There was even a bearish pin bar that formed on November 15 after tagging the 0.9015 area for the third time. This range has offered traders the ability to go long from support and short retests of resistance.

However, the bigger play here would be a break from this range in my opinion. Due to the sizable distance between the range top and bottom, a breakout could carry the Euro cross 270 pips in either direction.

A daily close at 5 pm EST above resistance at 0.9015 would target the current 2017 high near 0.9280. Alternatively, a daily close below support at 0.8745 would pave the way for a move toward the 0.8470 area.

It just so happens that 0.8470 is a level I’ve had on my chart for quite some time. It may not look like much at first glance, but a view from the weekly time frame shows its influence all the way back to 2010.

Right now this is a waiting game to see whether it’s buyers or sellers that regain control. As always, the market will have the final say. You could trade the current range until the pair breaks out, but prepare yourself for choppy price action if you do.

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Range on the EURGBP daily chart

About the Author Justin Bennett

Justin Bennett is an internationally recognized Forex trader with 10+ years of experience. He's been interviewed by Stocks & Commodities Magazine as a featured trader for the month and is mentioned weekly by Forex Factory next to publications from CNN and Bloomberg. Justin created Daily Price Action in 2014 and has since grown the monthly readership to over 100,000 Forex traders and has personally mentored more than 3,000 students.Read more...

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  • Jam says:

    Good brother

  • Farai says:

    Thank you Justin

    • Justin Bennett says:

      Anytime, Farai.

    • Darius says:

      Are you from Lithuania? Based on your nick

  • Elijah Babaniyi says:

    Thanks a lot. This is a great encouragement.

    • Justin Bennett says:

      You’re welcome.

  • Muhammad Ijaz says:

    Thanks you Justin, your commentary very helpful for me that’s why I know proper money management etc

    • Justin Bennett says:

      You’re welcome. Pleased to hear that.

  • Michele says:

    Grazie Justin, sempre al top.

  • jay says:

    what ? i dont understand with your analysis.. buy or sell ?

    • Justin Bennett says:

      Why does it have to be either? This isn’t a signal service. What you do or don’t do based on my commentary is 100% your decision and responsibility.

      • Ahmad says:

        Awsome. Thanks J!

        • Justin Bennett says:

          You’re welcome, Ahmad.

    • Ade says:

      This weekly analysis is how you are supposed to analyze forex market. Keep your chart clean and simple. Plot your horizontal lines. You will see buy sell signal with time and follow justin articles.

  • Sam says:

    Thank you Justin!

  • imi says:

    Hi and thanks for your valuable info. Regarding the Pin Bar on 8 Sep. 2012 we can see the same Pin Bar below 1.1670 but the up trend continued. I see a lot of Pin Bars and Price Patterns that 90% of time never followed of the rules as you mentioned here for EURUSD.
    Be glad if you kindly explain about that.

    • Justin Bennett says:

      I’m not sure what pin bar from 2012 you’re referring to, but no pattern or signal will work in your favor 100% of the time.

      • kevin law says:

        HI Justin
        over weeked US/CA hard to trade they closed 1.2770 above couple time daily NY time but retest supported failed down back to 1.2770 level and I got stopped out.

  • Mujahid Sohail says:

    sir you said usdjpy move other jpy pairs .. so if usdjpy is going down then eurjpy will be going down too right ..

    • Justin Bennett says:

      No, I’ve said in the past that the yen pairs ‘often’ move in tandem. That doesn’t mean they always move together.

  • Mauricio says:

    gracias Justin por tu analisis

  • Peter says:

    What’s ur view on eurjpy?

  • Darius says:

    USDCAD – I am now thinking what is more likely – correction up continuation down? bearish pinbar has formed on friday. So that is a sign of correction. But dollar index is bit overextended down. And CAD index was up on wednesdya and thursday, but cross formed on friday, which might be down. So that would mean we should wait for correction?

  • Howard Hill says:

    Justin, thanks again for your clear & concise analyses.

    • Justin Bennett says:

      Anytime, Howard.

      • Lindiwe says:

        Thanks Justin, i’m learning a lot from your analysis.

  • Ripon says:

    Thanks Justin its very clear analysis

    • Justin Bennett says:

      You’re welcome.

  • Nadzuah says:

    Thank you justin about eurusd…..

  • Halim says:

    Your information is very helpful….. Thanks Justin.

  • Steve says:

    Thanks Justin for the insights. I always use your charts for support and resistance levels and analysis and have never regreted. Thank you

    • Justin Bennett says:

      You’re welcome, Steve. Thanks for the feedback.

  • Divyesh says:

    Thank you sir for your Support & usefull guideline about EURGBP forcast ,
    & can you plz give advice about AUDUSD Forcast ?

  • Ahmed kamel says:

    I wanna to trade in a company have no dealing disk.. And good
    Help Justin bennett

  • Faizal says:

    Hi , Justin
    What is the best during drawn the trendline? Using HL or open/close.

  • tochukwu ughadinjo says:

    technically, your analysis has always been insightful and a great resource to us upcoming traders. thanks justin . i appreciate

  • Arshad Shoukat says:

    thanx Dear…

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