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EURUSD suffered a significant false break a couple of weeks ago.
Buyers cleared trend line resistance following the March 20th Fed rate decision and statement.
However, sellers were quick to extinguish those gains.
By the 22nd, euro bears had already closed the pair back below the trend line.
But that presented a new opportunity of its own.
Last Sunday I pointed out how the 1.1330 area would likely serve as resistance moving forward.
Sure enough, Monday’s session reached a high of 1.1331 before ending the week 114 pips lower at 1.1217.
There isn’t much separating EURUSD from fresh multi-year lows this week.
A retest of the 1.1190 area will attract a few bids if tested. But it’s unlikely to trigger much in the way of momentum given the recent false break and longer term downtrend.
Key support below 1.1190 comes in at the November 2017 trend line near 1.1080.
GBPUSD bulls are in full retreat as we begin a new week of trade.
We’ve been keeping a close eye on the trend line that extends from the year-to-date low at 1.2426.
That trend line support was the only thing propping up this year’s rally from a technical point of view.
The GBPUSD cleared trend line support on Thursday with a 1.3038 close.
Friday’s session played out perfectly for those looking for a retest of former support as new resistance.
Notice how GBPUSD sold off from the 1.3130 area on Friday.
Key support on the way down is a little trickier to identify. That’s due to the choppy price action we’ve seen here since the second half of 2018.
However, I would keep a close eye on 1.2920 this week.
And if sellers get through that, I’d look to the 1.2700 handle or perhaps even the trend line’s inception point at 1.2480.
Back on March 22, I wrote that GBPJPY is vulnerable below 147.00.
That area was former rising wedge support which would have likely attracted sellers if tested as new resistance.
As you can see from the chart below, GBPJPY has only managed to climb as high as 146.50.
The breakdown on the 20th is still in play which leaves the pair vulnerable.
But there was a notable development last Thursday.
You may recall the 144.60 horizontal support level from my March 22nd post.
Well, GBPJPY closed below that level at the end of Thursday’s session. That wasn’t a surprise given last week’s breakdown on the GBPUSD.
You can also see how the pair closed back below this level at the end of Friday’s session.
That was a significant development as it signals that 144.60 is intact as new resistance this week.
As long as this level holds as resistance on a daily closing basis, GBPJPY is vulnerable.
The next key support comes in at 141.15. Notice how this level has attracted buyers since last December.
Alternatively, a daily close above 144.60 would keep last week’s range intact.
We’ve waited all month for GBPAUD to clear a particular support level.
On March 4th I pointed out a 1,440 pip range that has contained the pair since September of last year.
At the time, GBPAUD was testing the range ceiling at 1.8720.
The pair ended up moving sideways for the next three weeks.
But things started to progress for sellers early last week. On Tuesday I wrote that GBPAUD was close to confirming a 500-pip opportunity.
Fast forward to Friday’s close, and you can see how the pair has cleared channel support on a daily and weekly closing basis.
That could be a big deal as we head into a new week of trade.
Keep in mind too that GBPUSD closed below a critical support level on Thursday.
That breakdown on the pound could help push an already vulnerable GBPAUD lower this week.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on the area between 1.8430 and 1.8470.
A retest of this (new) resistance area will likely encounter an influx of selling pressure.
And if sellers can follow through on Friday’s break, there isn’t much in the way of support until 1.7930.
You can see how this level has served as a pivot of sorts since December 2017.
There is a chance GBPAUD will return to the multi-month range support at 1.7280.
However, that may take several weeks or even months.
As for event risk this week, you’ll want to put the RBA rate decision and statement on your calendar.
Those events will take place on Monday at 11:30 pm EST.
Last Wednesday I pointed out a short opportunity on gold (XAUUSD).
The market had just cleared rising wedge support and looked poised to revisit the 1280 support area.
I wasn’t expecting such an aggressive selloff on Thursday, but the move nearly took gold to our target in just 24 hours.
After a brief relief rally on Friday, gold sellers flooded the market with offers before the weekend.
For the week ahead, I don’t see much standing in the way of a retest of the 1280 level.
From there it’s going to be a wait-and-see game.
But I’m not a fan of buying gold right now, even at the 1280 support area.
Given the new price structure that materialized with the late February/early March selloff, it seems gold may be headed for the 1260 area.
Just keep in mind that it’s going to take a daily close below 1280 to expose that 1260 region.
Until then, expect buyers to defend 1280 on any retests this week.
Justin Bennett is an internationally recognized Forex trader with 10+ years of experience. He's been interviewed by Stocks & Commodities Magazine as a featured trader for the month and is mentioned weekly by Forex Factory next to publications from CNN and Bloomberg. Justin created Daily Price Action in 2014 and has since grown the monthly readership to over 100,000 Forex traders and has personally mentored more than 3,000 students.Read more...
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