In this weekly market forecast, I’m going to show you exactly how I’m trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, and ETHUSDT through March 18, 2022.
Watch the video below, and be sure to scroll down to see the charts and key levels for the week ahead.
The EURUSD failed to break out from the 1.1080 area last week. That’s the 2008 trend line that buyers had to reclaim to turn the euro bullish.
I was waiting to see if buyers could reclaim that level to open up the 1.1480 handle. That didn’t happen, and that’s okay.
As explained in last week’s video, I didn’t short EURUSD from 1.1080 because of the aggressive rally we saw on the 9th.
Immediate retests like that often turn out to be false breaks. In hindsight, a short from 1.1080 would have been quite profitable, but hindsight is always 20/20.
At the same time, I didn’t lose money because the trade idea never set up, and that’s what matters most.
All eyes will be on the 1.085 area for the week ahead as that’s the multi-decade support. As long as EURUSD is above that on a daily closing basis, bulls have a fighting chance.
Close below that 1.08 region, and we likely see EURUSD head toward 1.065.
GBPUSD is approaching the descending channel support I mentioned last weekend. That level comes in near 1.295.
Another significant support area to keep an eye on this week is 1.285. It’s served as a pivot for GBPUSD since 2016 and is the 50% retracement of the 2020 to 2021 range.
Overall, the pound looks relatively weak against the US dollar.
However, after three straight red weeks and significant ones at that, it makes me wonder if sellers can keep this up.
A relief rally at some point seems likely, and 1.285-1.295 seems like a logical area to expect one.
Key resistance for GBPUSD this week is 1.32.
USDJPY rocketed higher on Friday with a 115-pip gain. It also closed the week above the 116.30 area.
However, bulls face a significant challenge early this week at the ascending trend line from March of 2021. Depending on when tested, that level comes in at 117.60.
Another key resistance level to keep an eye on this week is 118.50. The area served as support throughout 2015 and later flipped to resistance in late 2016.
The USDJPY is in a tricky spot right now. It’s too close to resistance to long and too bullish to short.
That said, if we do see USDJPY test the 118.50 area this week, I may entertain a short position for a quick mean reversion play.
But it all depends on how and when USDJPY tests that region.
On the flip side, a rounded retest of 116.30 in the coming days could produce a buying opportunity given the right bullish price action.
I made a video on USDCHF last week. In that video, I discussed a massive symmetrical triangle that has developed since April 2021.
I thought it might take another few weeks for USDCHF to break out, but buyers managed to clear resistance on Friday.
That means USDCHF is now trading above the 0.932 area I mentioned last week on a daily and weekly closing basis.
However, I will wait to see how the pair reacts to 0.932 as new support before acting.
The market is too extended to entertain a long position, in my opinion. And as I mentioned last week, the 0.937 resistance area is likely to trigger some short-term weakness.
So I’ll be watching for bullish price action from the 0.932 area this week.
If we don’t get it and the USDCHF closes a day back below that region, then Friday’s breakout is likely a false move.
But until then, I’m going to respect Friday’s move.
I wrote about Ethereum on Friday. The key to the ETH chart is the symmetrical triangle that has formed since November of last year.
That’s where the upper trend line starts. On the other hand, support extends back to the February 2020 highs.
But the key here is waiting for a confirmed break. That means either a daily close above $2,800 or below $2,500.
Above $2,800 we have $3,000, followed by $3,600. And below $2,500, Ethereum is likely to see $2,300 and potentially $1,700.
Either way, I think Ethereum is on the brink of a 30% move. However, it’s a waiting game at the moment to see which way ETH breaks.